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Bitcoin – 4H.
After quotes soared last week on news from the ECB, which lowered the deposit rate and announced the restart of the quantitative easing program, BTC showed surprisingly calm trading without sharp changes in value over the weekend. Both on Saturday and Sunday, the price moved along the correction level of 61.8% ($10256) and approached the upper trend line. I still expect that the cryptocurrency will fall to the lower trend line, that is, to the area of $9400. However, in any case, as long as the cryptocurrency does not leave the "tapering triangle", it is recommended to trade with the goals within it.
This week, the entire global trading community will be closely watching the Fed's actions. According to most traders, the Fed will go for a rate cut, the second in a row. Easing monetary policy may spur demand for bitcoin, but at the same time, it does not mean that the "cue ball" will rise in price in any case. I believe that it is possible to consider the growth this week, but you need to buy BTC, having technical signals at your disposal. And until the close of bitcoin quotes, there will be no such signals above the downward trend line. The situation is the same as the possible sales of the "cue ball". Now, I expect a decrease in the area of $9400, but new sales or increase in current sales will be possible only at the close under the "triangle".
Meanwhile, miners are increasing production capacity, this applies to both private miners and bitcoin mining companies. It is reported that manufacturers of mining equipment in the second quarter of 2019 could not meet the demand. Most likely, miners are in a hurry to get as many bitcoins as possible before halving, which will take place next year and will reduce the profit for the extracted block twice. Bitcoin, by the way, did not react to this news.
Overall results:
At the weekend, bitcoin "rested", but the information background this week is unlikely to retain the relaxed mood among crypto traders for a long time. There are no new signals of indicator and graphical analysis now, but I still expect the "cue ball" to fall to $9400, and purchases will be considered only above the downward trend line.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.
Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin made a return to the upper area of the "triangle" and went into the "flat". However, I recommend that you still consider sales with targets of $9788 (76.4% of Fibonacci), $9566 (38.2% of Fibonacci) and $9400 (the bottom line of the triangle). As a new signal, I recommend waiting for the rebound from the downward trend line or bearish divergence.
I do not recommend buying bitcoin right now, as the cryptocurrency remains in a narrowing triangle, which implies a decrease in the price.
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