30.09.201909:39 Forex Analysis & Reviews: We believe that this week will be extremely volatile (We expect a prospective decrease in AUD/USD and NZD/USD pairs)

The past week has again proved to be difficult and saturated with negative events in the financial markets. But although they have not yet had a direct impact, it can really begin to do so in the long run.

Another scandal surrounds Ukraine and Donald Trump and the topic of Britain's exit from the EU remains. Good growth rates of the American economy continues, which is 2.0% according to the latest revised GDP data. There are mixed statements by Fed members on the future level of interest rates and the difficult situation in the Middle East were the main drivers that forced the American stock market to continue correction and the foreign exchange market to consolidate. At the same time, the quotes of crude oil to nervously jerk up and down.

But the coming week will not be calm. In our opinion, it will have to have a significant impact on all markets, without exception. We single out only the most important of them.

An RBA meeting will be held on Tuesday, from which they expect a decision to lower interest rates by 0.25% to 0.75%. Earlier, the Australian regulator made it clear that the current situation of tension in the world, the lack of uncertainty, as well as the high likelihood of continued Fed rate cuts following the ECB, will force the bank to also act. We assume that this may exert local pressure on the local currency rate. Data on the index of business activity in the United States will be published this week and it is expected to increase to 50.1 points from 49.1 points. In addition, the values of the volume of industrial orders, the index of business activity in the services sector and the index of business activity in the non-production sector will be released. The volume of industrial orders in August is expected to decrease by 0.3% from the July value of 1.4%. The index of business activity in the services sector will retain the value of 50.9 points, and the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector will decrease to 55.0 points in September from 56.4 points in August.

But the central event, especially for the foreign exchange market, will be the traditional publication of employment data in America. It is estimated that the number of new jobs from ADP will fall in growth to 140,000 from 195,000 a month earlier. At the same time, official figures are expected from the Ministry of Labor to slightly increase the number of new jobs - up to 145,000 from 130,000, while unemployment is expected to remain at 3.7%.

In general, evaluating the possible dynamics in the markets, we believe that the focus will continue to be on the decision from the Fed to continue to lowering interest rates and possibly even start buying government bonds as the market positioned at QE4. We believe that only local movements will be preserved this week against the background of published data and nothing more.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair is consolidating above the level of 0.6745. We believe that the pair will continue a local decline in anticipation of the RBA meeting. Lowering the price below this level may lead to its fall to 0.6700.

The NZD/USD pair is trading above 0.6250. We believe that the RBA's decision to lower interest rates will have an impact on the RBNZ and will encourage them to also cut the level of borrowing at the next meeting. We believe that a decrease in price below the level of 0.6250 will lead to its fall to 0.6200.