18.10.201908:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The recipe for Boris Johnson's victory in parliament: to persuade the Labor Party and return the conservatives. Brexit historic vote scheduled for October 19

The new wave of growth in the euro and the British pound will depend entirely on how the UK parliament votes this weekend. However, today, it is quite possible that several statements will be made by Labor and the DUP on the topic of Brexit, which could lead to a surge in market volatility. Yesterday's fundamental data on the state of the US economy did not meet the expectations of traders, which once again increases the probability of lowering interest rates in the US this year.

GBPUSD

Yesterday, Boris Johnson insisted that his deal with Brexit be approved by the House of Commons at a vote on Saturday. Johnson expects to receive a majority of votes even without DUP support. In his address to a speech at the European Council in Brussels, where EU leaders signed the agreement at the last minute, the British Prime Minister said that this agreement is very important for the country, adding that the deal he proposed is also good for friends in the EU. Johnson hopes that Saturday's parliamentary vote will lead to an agreement that will be a watershed in British history.

However, despite all the efforts of the prime minister, victory is still far away. Yesterday, the DUP released a statement refusing to support the government and its position on the customs border and VAT calculation. Even after the European Commission published the text of the revised agreement, Arlene Foster's party came out with more harsh criticism. Without 10 DUP deputies, Johnson is likely to need the support of some Labor deputies. Also, one should not forget about the 21st vote of conservatives, who the prime minister recently expelled from the parliamentary party for supporting Benn's law. It is not clear which side the Labor Party will take since, without their support, the likelihood of approval of the agreement is extremely small.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel emphasized yesterday that Johnson's deal sets the path to much weaker economic ties than the May agreement. In any case, the hottest debate will take place on the weekend, when the markets are closed and we will see their reaction only on Monday.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, the growth is limited by the resistance around 1.2920, just above which, there are a larger area and the maximum of the month – 1.2995. In the case of a downward correction, which suggests itself, the support will be provided by a minimum of 1.2760, but a larger area is seen slightly lower, in the area – 1.2660.

EURUSD

As noted above, yesterday's fundamental statistics on the US economy put pressure on the US dollar. New home construction in the US last month declined. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of bookmarks of new homes in September fell by 9.4% compared with the previous month and amounted to 1.256 million. The number of building permits in September fell by 2.7% compared to the previous month and amounted to 1.387 million in a year. Economists had expected bookmarks to drop 3.2% in September, and permissions to 6.3%.

US industrial production continues to slow. This is due to problems in trade relations and a drop in global growth. According to the Federal Reserve System, industrial production in September fell immediately by 0.4%. The largest decline was observed in the manufacturing industry, where the decline was 0.5% compared with the previous month. Excluding automobiles, manufacturing output fell by 0.2%.

Production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia slowed in October. According to the data, the business activity index dropped to 5.6 points, compared to 6 points in September.

Yesterday, it also became known that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York continued to pour liquidity into financial markets. The next round of repo operations was $ 104.15 billion. Let me remind you that such injections have been taking place since September of this year, and they are aimed at containing the growth of short-term rates. In his speech, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said the Fed's interventions helped stabilize the short-term interest rate market, and temporary repurchase transactions worked as expected. The Fed representative also noted that the purchase of treasury bonds is purely technical, does not have a monetary aspect.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it is possible that after the growth on Brexit news, a downward correction will be formed, however, for this, a breakdown of support 1.1115 is required. Only after this can we expect the return of risky assets to the area of minimum 1.1070. If the demand for the trading instrument continues to continue, and this will happen only after the news about the increased likelihood of approval of the agreement in the British Parliament, the buyers' target will be new highs in the region of 1.1160 and 1.1200.