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The close of trading in October occurred far beyond the monthly average progress. The main direction of trading is falling. Despite the fact that the upward movement is a medium-term impulse, the probability of a return to the level of 1.2725 is 90%. Thus, this makes it possible to consider the decline as the basis for building a trading plan.
It is important to find the entry point by a simple pattern. Today, a false breakdown of the Friday extremum can become such a pattern.
An alternative model will be developed if the closing of today's trading occurs above the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.2999-1.2980. This will indicate the continuation of the upward impulse. It is not profitable to buy from the current levels, as the probability of a downward corrective movement to return to the monthly short-term is too high. Purchases, in turn, will become profitable after the decline to Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.2820-1.2801.
Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.
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