26.12.201900:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Is it worth buying Bitcoin next year and how much will it cost?

Greetings to crypto enthusiasts, here comes the end of 2019, how many things happened, and even more that did not happen, so here are the details. The "holy" forecasts of many market gurus about the movement of Bitcoin prices towards the $50,000-$100,000 marks did not even closely match, but, I think, ordinary sane traders did not expect such a development. In principle, not everything was so bad as in 2018, if you look at the Bitcoin movement in detail, then 2019 gave a solid income, and this is not a joke. The highest income since the beginning of the year was 300%, and for the current day, taking into account the correction, it is approximately 110%, which, by the way, is greater than in the foreign exchange and stock markets. Thus, there was an opportunity to earn, but, in connection with a considerable fear in the form of a repetition of 2018, few people managed to take full advantage of the situation, but I do not exclude that true traders took their profit from the market.

What was in terms of the foundation of the crypto industry?

Many projects, exchanges that appeared on the 2017-2018 hype, finally fell apart in 2019, which to some extent cleaned the industry from garbage. At the beginning of the year [2019], a new hype appeared in the form of IEO [Initial Exchange Offerings, the primary exchange offer], which was headed by the Binance exchange and, to some extent, again set the drive for the market. Like any hype, IEO died just as fast as the ICO [Initial coin offering], and the market began to fade again.

In terms of jurisprudence, the leading economies of the world continue to consider cryptocurrency a surrogate, but still try to figure it out. In turn, the SEC [Securities and Exchange Commission] continues to pull the strap, delaying the launch of the bitcoin-ETF, citing all the same reasons: the lack of an appropriate legal framework; risk of laundering; high volatility of bitcoin; data exchange, etc. In turn, representatives of the US Congress in the person of Paul Gosar proposed a bill providing for the separation of functions for regulating digital currencies between several departments, which may facilitate the task of a sacred understanding of the industry.

Digest of the last days:

• The People's Bank of China announced the completion of work on a digital analogue of the renminbi. The digital RMB electronic payment system has already been tested. The next step is the launch of a pilot program in commercial banks in China, through which the digital yuan will be distributed among the citizens of the country.

• Crypto enthusiast Larry Chermak conducted a study and found that 95% of all cryptocurrencies are already depreciated and their value is zero, since they have zero liquidity. He studied not only the volume of exchange trading, but also the depth of their orders, the data of which is more difficult to fake. With the exception of stablecoins, of all crypto assets, only twenty currencies have liquidity. Bitcoin has the highest rate. If we consider its analysis in descending order, then the list of currencies looks like this: Bitcoin; Ethereum; EOS Litecoin XRP; Bitcoin Cash BSV TRON; ETC NEO; BNB; Monero Dash Zcash Chainlink Sellar Cardano; Dogecoin; Huobi Token; Tezos.

• Iranian President Hassan Rouhani proposed creating a cryptocurrency for Muslim countries as an alternative to the US dollar. He believes that the Muslim world needs a different tool to counter US economic sanctions.

What awaits us in 2020?

To begin with, according to the fifth European Union anti-money laundering directive, from January 10, 2020, new rules will come into force that all blockchain projects located in the EU should adhere to - a link to the document. So, according to the new rules, projects will be required to register with supervisory authorities, identify their customers and pass on the addresses of user wallets to the authorities. The consequences of the innovation are not difficult to predict, many small startups simply will not be able to get along, which will lead to a change of jurisdiction to other countries. Large projects will feel the pressure that will affect existing users within the ecosystem. It is worthwhile to understand that the European Union is not doing anything catastrophic, this completely normal norm of vision is active, just the ideology of the crypto industry is built according to a different law, which contradict the well-known, but this is for the time being.

In turn, the US Securities and Exchange Commission [SEC] will once again decide to approve or refuse the Bitcoin-ETF on February 26, 2020, but with a 95% probability we will hear the refusal all for the same reasons. Regarding the Bitcoin-ETF, I suppose that 2020 will not be able to give complete results, because the regulator does not have a complete understanding of control and regulation, and if the demand for cryptocurrencies continues to fall, the process will go to arbitrary infinity.

Forecasts for 2020 and not only - an excursion according to the expectations of world experts

• Silk Road DarkNet service founder Ross Ulbricht once again announced Bitcoin's upside potential to $100,000, citing Elliott wave analysis. So, he believes that the past waves had impulses in themselves: 1 wave - from $0.06 to $32; 3 wave - from $2 to $1240; 5th wave - started from $175 and continues to this day, that is, its prospect, in comparison with previous waves, is in the region of $100,000.

• The well-known McAffee continues to shout about growth, although his earlier predictions, frankly, did not match. This time he is certain that by the end of 2020 the first cryptocurrency will grow ten times, he did not provide any arguments, thereby his goal is to once again draw attention to himself and no more.

• Former chief executive officer of one of the largest exchanges in China [BTCC] and just a veteran of the crypto industry, Bobby Lee believes that next year Bitcoin can easily update record highs and reach such a mark as $60,000. He suggests that, in connection with the upcoming Halving Bitcoin, the demand for the first cryptocurrency can significantly increase. His judgment is more sensible in comparison with the two predictions before him, and so, the halving process entails the complication of BTC production by halving the reward to miners. A decrease in the emission rate can directly affect the rate of Bitcoin.

• The cult personality Nassim Taleb, the author of such a bestseller as The Black Swan, believes that a decrease in people's confidence in the banking system and state authorities will lead to the fact that the crypto industry can no longer be ignored, and even if the cryptocurrency price drops, it will still be used.

• Experts from the research division of the BitMEX exchange forecast that in 2020 the BTC will trade in the range of $2,000-$15,000, and the Bitcoin dominance index will not exceed 75%.

• Bloomberg analysts, together with Deutsche Bank experts, believe that the instability of the financial system caused by a potential recession and further problems of US-Chinese trade relations may lead to an increase in demand for the first cryptocurrency in 2020.

As we can see from the above forecasts, many experts expect great growth, just do not forget that in order for 2017 to repeat, the market needs another influx of new traders with real [non-virtual] money. Otherwise, we will see the flow of an asset from one crypto trader to another, and the Bitcoin rate will tirelessly continue to decline.