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To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
Yesterday's breakout of the 1.1920 support resulted in the euro's sharp decline, but it was not possible to wait for a good entry point to form from this level. Rumors that Republicans and Democrats are holding informal talks on further emergency funding for the economy have returned demand for the US dollar. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the breakout and settling below the 1.1884 level caused a good signal for selling the euro to form, which brought the pair to the support area of 1.1830, where you could watch long positions immediately on the rebound. Purchases for a rebound from the 1.1884 level, which I mentioned in yesterday's review, did not justify themselves, and they had to be withdrawn after an unsuccessful attempt to return buyers at the 1.1884 level, since it was at that moment that a new signal for selling the euro had formed. As for the current market situation, buyers will once again have to protect the support of 1.1830, where only a false breakout will be a signal to open long positions. If there is no activity at this level, it is best to postpone purchases until updating the low of 1.1784, where the pair may decline after a good report on the state of the US labor market in August this year. An equally important task for the bulls is to return EUR/USD to the resistance of 1.1884 and settle on it. This will allow you to regain the location of major players and open a direct road to the levels of 1.1920 and 1.1952.
Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders COT reports for August 11 continued to record the growth of long positions and the reduction of short ones, which tells us about the continued interest of investors in risky assets, even at such high prices, as many bet on a further weakening of the US dollar. Problems are also piling up due to disagreements in the US Congress on the further approval of financial assistance to the unemployed, as well as the aggravation of US trade relations with China and the EU. The report shows an increase in long non-commercial positions from the level of 262,109 to the level of 266,078, while short non-commercial positions decreased from 81,461 to 66,327. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position sharply jumped to 199,751, up from 180,648 a week earlier, indicating an increase in interest in buying risky assets.
To open short positions on EUR/USD you need:
Sellers will probably try to take the support of 1.1830 today, but I recommend selling below this level only after the pair settles under this range. In this case, we can expect a larger downward movement to the area of a low of 1.1784. Good data on the state of the US labor market may completely pull down the pair to support 1.1746, where I recommend taking profits. In the EUR/USD growth scenario, the bears will most likely declare themselves only after updating the major resistance of 1.1884, from which you can sell the euro immediately on the rebound, since the moving averages are also in this range, now playing on the side of the bears. If there is no activity at this level, short positions can be considered for a rebound from the resistance of 1.1920, based on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.
Indicator signals:
Moving averages
Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a downward correction forming for the pair.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.
Bollinger Bands
In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator around 1.1800. You can sell the euro immediately on a rebound from the upper border of the indicator in the 1.1945 area.
Description of indicators
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