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EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair traded calmly once again on Thursday. During the day, quotes only passed by about 40 points, so it was extremely difficult to trade in such conditions. And counting on high profits is even more difficult. Three rather important reports were published in America, however, as we warned yesterday, none of them had the desired impact on traders. Even the most important reports on GDP and durable goods orders. GDP for the first quarter remained unchanged at 6.4%, while orders for durable goods grew by 2.3%, which is less than the markets expected. But, as we said, the markets did not pay any attention to this data anyway. Nevertheless, several trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe were formed that deserve attention. At the very beginning of the European trading session, the pair bounced off the extremum level of 1.1922, which was near the critical line. It was a clear buy signal and long positions should have been opened. Subsequently, the quotes rose to the next extreme level of 1.1950 and bounced off it, so it was necessary to manually close the longs in a profit of about 15 points. It was necessary to open short positions on the signal to sell, but the price did not immediately go down on the signal to sell, but first it returned to the level of 1.1950, bounced again, forming another signal to sell, and only then did it drop back to the level of 1.1922, thereby, bringing another 15 points of profit to traders. The signal near the critical line should not have been worked out any more, since it had formed in the late afternoon, and the pair showed a blatant flat and even low volatility during the whole day.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 25. Central banks remain wary of hawkish rhetoric.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 25. Andy Haldane was left alone...
EUR/USD 1H
The EUR/USD pair spent the entire day in a flat between the levels of 1.1922 and 1.1950 on the hourly timeframe. There is still no clear trend. There is no trend line, no channel, so now we can only guess which trend is forming. The euro/dollar pair is now at some point of equilibrium after falling 250 points last week after the Federal Reserve meeting. Thus, the markets may take some time to decide what to do with the EUR/USD pair now. On Friday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines. The closest important levels at this time are 1.1851, 1.1924, 1.1950, 1.198 and 1.2051, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.2031) and Kijun-sen (1.1907) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. No major events are scheduled in the European Union on Friday, and the US will publish reports on changes in the level of spending and income of the American population, as well as an index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. These are clearly not the kind of reports that can provoke a strong market reaction.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 70 points during the last reporting week (June 8-14). The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that bullish sentiment has slightly weakened among the major players, but these slight changes in the latest reports do not affect the overall picture of the state of affairs in any way. For example, the first indicator in the chart above continues to indicate a bullish trend and the fact that non-commercial traders continue to build long positions over the medium term. Of course, the last three trading days were not included in the last COT report, so it would be better to draw a conclusion after the next report. Nevertheless, based on the information that we already have at our disposal, we cannot conclude that professional traders have begun to look towards selling the euro. In addition, it should be noted that the new COT report was not released on Friday, therefore, it should be expected a little later. Perhaps it will show a serious weakening of the bullish sentiment, but so far we don't have such information. Accordingly, you need to wait for the new COT report and see what information it contains. So far, we note that the total number of open Buy-contracts (longs) for non-commercial traders is twice the total number of Sell-contracts (shorts). The green and red lines of the first indicator move away from each other, and the histogram of the second indicator rises. All this speaks, at least, of the preservation of the bullish mood.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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