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GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair traded much more actively on Tuesday than it did on Monday, however, it is very difficult to understand what exactly caused volatility to rise. Considering the fact that the dollar started to strengthen in the European trading session, it can hardly be concluded that this is a delayed reaction of the markets to the strong NonFarm Payrolls report last Friday, because on Monday the European markets were not closed (unlike the US ones) and could well have traded the euro and the dollar. In general, it is rather difficult to say what caused the sharp decline in the pair's quotes yesterday. Certainly not macroeconomic reports, since even after skimming over the chart with a cursory glance, it becomes clear that all the most important reports were published when the movement was already in the middle of its development. The US reports were the same as for the euro/dollar pair (Markit and ISM service business indices) and also did not provoke any logical reaction. In the UK, the PMI in the construction sector was published in the morning, which also did not cause any reaction from the markets. Thus, traders had to consider only technical signals yesterday, while ignoring all reports. The first signal would be ideal in terms of accuracy - the price bounced off the Senkou Span B line, forming a sell signal. It surpassed 1.3859 later, therefore, short positions should be kept open after the formation of the second sell signal. Unfortunately, a rather strong upward movement began at the end of the European trading session, during which the price overcame the level of 1.3859 from the bottom up, and half an hour later - back from top to bottom. Thus, the first short position closed at a profit of about 15 points, the second long position closed at a loss of about 20 points, and on the fourth signal of the day, new short positions should have been opened. Since the price reached the Kijun-sen line, traders managed to earn about 41 more points, so the total profit of the day was about 35 points. But all the same, the movements were very illogical and difficult to predict on Tuesday. Much more could have been earned. The last signal near the critical line should no longer be considered, since it was approaching evening and night.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 7. Existing vaccines are not very effective against the "Indian" strain of COVID.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 7. The European Union threatens Britain with the court. The number of infections with the "Indian" strain is growing in Great Britain
GBP/USD 1H
The pair's quotes settled above the downward trend line on the hourly timeframe, but this did little, as yesterday showed. However, the upward movement did take place, so now the pair can really start to form a new downward trend. In general, the situation on the hourly timeframe is quite understandable, but many timeframes predict movements in different directions. Therefore, we recommend that you brace for illogical movements. In technical terms, we continue to draw your attention to the most important levels and recommend trading from them: 1.3731, 1.3800, 1.3859, 1.3898. Senkou Span B (1.3891) and Kijun-sen (1.3812) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Nothing interesting will happen in the UK on Wednesday. Not a single report, not a single event. Meanwhile, we only have the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting in the United States, which is unlikely to interest anyone at all. The minutes may contain interesting information, but it is unlikely to be reflected on charts with dollar pairs.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by 50 points during the last reporting week (June 22-28). However, there is still a feeling that the current decline in the pound is a temporary phenomenon. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed different pictures at different times, but the pound still continues to grow in the long term. A group of non-commercial traders closed 35 buy contracts (longs) and opened 454 sell contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position decreased by 420 contracts. But seriously, you shouldn't even pay attention to these changes, since they are minimal. Nevertheless, the mood of professional traders is still bullish, as the total number of open buy contracts in the Non-commercial group remains 1.5 times greater than the number of sell contracts. Although professional traders for the pound did not buy the British currency at breakneck speed in the last year, nevertheless, the pound has been growing all this time. The first indicator shows that the net position of non-commercial traders (green line) has been falling in recent weeks, but this decline pattern is fundamentally different from a similar line for the euro. If there was a clear trend for the euro and the actions of large players were indeed reflected in the COT charts, then in the case of the pound, the data that reflect the actions of non-commercial traders is very chaotic and does not fit well with how the British currency has been moving in the last year. Actually, the indicators do not even show that the pound was actively bought, although the British currency has sharply grown over the past year and a half. Thus, once again it should be remembered that the pound may rise simply because the money supply in the United States has inflated and continues to swell. Consequently, the dollar depreciates, and as a result, the pound's rate rises.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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