11.08.202113:26 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: plan for the US session on August 11 (analysis of morning deals).

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3808 and recommended starting from it when deciding on entering the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. The bears managed to push the pound to the support of 1.3808. However, their activity dried up, which led to the formation of a false breakdown and the formation of a signal to buy the pound. At the time of writing, trading continued above the level of 1.3808, and the entire focus will now be shifted to US inflation data. Weak indicators indicating a decrease in the growth rate of consumer prices in the United States will provide quite good support for the British pound, whose buyers are just waiting for a chance to recoup. When trading is conducted above the support of 1.3808, we can count on an upward correction of the pair. The bulls can count on the growth and renewal of the daily highs in the area of 1.3847. A breakdown and a reverse test of this level from top to bottom form an entry point into long positions with an upward correction and a return to the resistance of 1.3883, where I recommend fixing the profits. A break in this range will lead to a larger upward correction of the pair and an update of the local maximum of 1.3925, which will indicate a break in the downward trend. If there is no activity at the level of 1.3808 and its breakdown during the data on the US economy, it is best not to rush into purchases. The best solution will be long positions from the level of 1.3769 but subject to the formation of a false breakdown. I advise you to buy GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from the minimum of 1.3721 with the aim of an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The initial task of the bears is to protect the resistance of 1.3847, which can be tested in the case of weak data on the growth rate of inflation in the United States. I advise you to open the first short positions only if a false breakdown is formed in the expectation of a return to the day's minimum of 1.3808. Suppose US inflation turns out to be much better than economists. In that case, this will again force the central bank to return to the topic of earlier curtailing economic support programs, strengthening the US dollar's position. A breakdown and a reverse test of the level of 1.3808 from the bottom up will hit the stop orders of the bulls and bring down GBP/USD to a new area of 1.3769, where I recommend fixing the profits. The longer-range target remains the 1.3721. If there are no active sellers around 1.3847, I advise you to postpone sales until the next major resistance of 1.3883. I also recommend opening short positions from there only if a false breakdown is formed. You can sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from a new high in the area of 1.3925, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day.

The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for August 3 recorded a reduction in short positions and a sharp increase in long ones. All this is explained by the results of the meeting of the Bank of England, where representatives again started talking that in the near future, the attitude to monetary policy will change in the direction of tightening. It brought back the demand for the "sleeping all week" British pound, which allowed us to change the balance of power in the net position. After lifting all quarantine restrictions in the UK, the panic has also receded, which allows the economy to continue to "breathe deeply." Currently, there is a slight pressure on the pound. However, it is mainly due to excellent indicators on the American economy and the labor market. However, I advise you to stick to the strategy of buying the pound with each significant decline, as the big players do. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased 41,194 to the level of 43,119.

In contrast, short non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 46,878 to the level of 43,205, indicating continued purchases from major players. As a result, the non-commercial net position remained negative and amounted to -86 against -5,684 a week earlier. The closing price of last week jumped from the level of 1.3826 to 1.3891.

Signals of indicators

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily averages, indicating that the pound's pressure remains.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3847 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pair.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.