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On December 31, Bitcoin pleased the market with local impulse growth and consolidated above $48k. But subsequently, the price of the cryptocurrency broke through this line again and continued to move in the $45k–$48k area. The main digital asset starts the New Year within the usual range of fluctuations, gravitating towards its lower end of the range. More and more factors point to a bearish scenario and a retest of the $42k–$45k area.
Against the background of the pessimistic technical picture, the news background is highlighted, which is replete with positive forecasts. El Salvador President Nayib Bukele has become the main provider of the favorable outlook for Bitcoin. The head of the first state to recognize BTC as the state currency said that in 2022 the price of the crypto coin will reach $100k.
Since this is not the only prediction of the politician, I would like to dwell on this prediction and question it. My guess is that the main crypto asset is approaching the final stage of the bull market. In the near future, the final fifth wave of growth awaits us, after which the asset will plunge into the bear market. Let me remind you that in a full-fledged bear market, BTC lost at least 80% in price. If we are indeed in the embryonic stage of the fifth wave, then the cryptocurrency is unlikely to be able to reach $100k by the end of the current year, even despite numerous plans to expand the functionality of the asset and its mass adoption.
President Bukele also expressed confidence that at least two more countries will accept Bitcoin as legal tender, and the topic of cryptocurrencies will become key in the U.S. elections. The promising project of the future Bitcoin city will also be launched in 2022.
The first step in the massive adoption of cryptocurrencies was taken by the Central Bank of Israel, which stated that the country's citizens will be able to transfer profits from digital assets to the country's banks. The agency sent a directive to the country's banks, stating that individuals can transfer profits from operations with cryptocurrencies to their own bank accounts. It is important to note that banks should check the source of income before crediting them. In other words, it is a gentle way to take control of the crypto industry, while simultaneously fighting money laundering through the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin is moving within a narrow fluctuation range of $45k–$48k. According to the technical picture, sellers dominate the market, and buyers' activity is at its lowest. This is proved by technical indicators: MACD is uncomplainingly moving flat below the zero mark, and the RSI index is moving along the 40 mark within the bullish zone, but without preconditions for an increase. The Stochastic Oscillator formed a bearish crossover after a local outbreak on January 1. Soon, the metric will leave the bullish zone, and if there is no rebound, then this could mean a further decline in the price to $45k.
The technical picture of BTC/USD retains the main features of the last week of 2021. I still assume that the asset will continue to decline and break through the $46.7k support area and subsequently dip below $45k. It is not worth waiting for the final bullish rally of the coin until the price drops to the $42k–$45k area.
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