14.02.202210:37 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on February 14

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

A signal to buy emerged after EUR/USD hit 1.1373. Coincidentally, the MACD line was in the oversold area, so the pair increased by 25 pips. Meanwhile, selling at 1.1397 brought losses because even though the MACD line was in the overbough area, there was no downward movement in the market. No other signal appeared for the rest of the day.

Euro did not rally because CPI data from Germany was the same as expected. Statements of ECB board member Frank Elderson were also ignored by the market, and even though consumer sentiment in the US turned lower than expected, the aggravation of conflict within Ukraine discouraged traders from returning to risky assets. That led to a further decrease in EUR/USD.

But today an increase may be seen in the pair, especially if ECB President Christine Lagarde pursues a more aggressive stance on monetary policy. The monthly report of the Bundesbank, as well as statements from FOMC member James Bullard, may also shake the market.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1366 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1416 (thicker green line on the chart). However, there is little chance for a serious growth today, so make sure that the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it before taking long positions. It is also possible to buy at 1.1337, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1366 and 1.1416.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1337 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1288. The upcoming Bundesbank report may imply that the ECB should change its policy. If that happens, EUR/USD will rally. But if there is no upward movement, then it is better to continue selling. Just make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.1366, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1337 and 1.1288.

What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.