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In my morning forecast, I paid attention to several levels and recommended making decisions on entering the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. Unfortunately, it was not possible to achieve clarity on how to act at the level of 1.3477 in the first half of the day, since on the one hand, after the breakthrough, the reverse test of 1.3477 led to a breakdown and going beyond this range - accordingly, there is no sell signal, and on the other hand, the bears then regained control over this level, which only strengthened the position of buyers of the US dollar and led to a sell-off of the pound at 1.3446. In the afternoon, the technical picture has completely changed. And what were the entry points for the euro this morning?
In the afternoon, several important fundamental statistics on the American economy are coming out, but it is unlikely that it will be of serious importance now, especially in the conditions of what is happening in the world political arena. The market will continue to react only to geopolitical changes and news related to Russia and Ukraine. If there is no negative, you can count on reducing the pressure on the pair. In case of serious responses to Russia's actions by the US and the EU, the fall in risky assets may continue further. US GDP data and a strong report for the 4th quarter will lead to a new wave of decline in the pound, so I advise you not to hurry with long positions on the pair today. The key task of the bulls in the second half of the day will be to protect the support of 1.3436, as its breakdown will only increase the pressure on the pair. The best option, of course, will be purchases in case of a false breakdown at the level of 1.3436. However, immediately after that, active growth of the pair should occur. If it is not there and the pair continues to hover around this level, I advise you to postpone long positions to the next low of 1.3407. Only the formation of a false breakdown there will give an entry point to long positions. You can buy the pound immediately on a rebound from 1.3384, or even lower - from a minimum of 1.3359, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within a day. To stop the bearish trend, bulls need to try to close the day above 1.3469, which will not be so easy to do. A breakthrough and a test of this range after very weak data on the US economy and the labor market - only this can turn everything upside down, as well as an update of 1.3469 from top to bottom forms the first signal to open long positions with the pair rising to 1.3510. A more distant target will be the 1.3542 area, where I recommend fixing the profits.
To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:
Bears continue to fail any more or less adequate support levels, simply not seeing anything in their path. The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is to blame for everything. The primary task of sellers for today is to protect the new resistance of 1.3469, formed at the end of the first half of the day. By releasing the pound above this range, sharp profit-taking on short positions may begin, which major players do not want to allow. Therefore, the formation of a false breakout at 1.3469 forms an excellent entry point into short positions, followed by a decline and a breakdown of support at 1.3436. The lack of activity on the part of buyers there, as well as a breakdown and a reverse test of this level from the bottom up, will give an additional entry point into short positions to fall to 1.3407 and 1.3384. A more distant target will be the 1.3359 area, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the pair grows during the US session, as well as weak sellers' activity at 1.3469 - and this may be facilitated by poor data on US GDP growth rates in the 4th quarter of this year and statements by representatives of the Federal Reserve System, it is best to postpone sales. The demolition of 1.3469 may lead to a sharp increase in the pound. In this case, I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.3510, or even higher - around 1.3542, counting on a correction within the day by 20-25 points.
The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for February 15 recorded a sharp increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones. This led to the return of the delta of its positive value. Although the results of the Bank of England meeting did not come as a surprise, clear hints from the regulator on a more aggressive tightening of the monetary policy fuels the appetite for risks on the part of major players. If it were not for the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has reached a new level, one could count on a more active recovery of the pound. In the meantime, further demand for risky assets is questionable. Given that the British economy is currently going through not the best of times and at any moment the pace of economic growth may seriously slow down - an increase in rates may harm the pace of recovery in the near future. However, optimism is inspired by the recent good report on retail sales, which implies strong growth in the indicator. The fact that inflation in January remained at the same levels and practically did not change year-on-year - all this may affect the plans of the Bank of England, which will moderate the pace of policy tightening. Further geopolitical events around Russia and Ukraine, as well as the decisive actions of the Federal Reserve System regarding future interest rates in March of this year - all this will continue to put pressure on buyers of the pound. Some traders expect that the US central bank may resort to more aggressive actions and raise rates by 0.5% at once, rather than by 0.25% - this will become a kind of bullish signal for the US dollar. The COT report for February 15 indicated that long non-commercial positions increased from 44,709 to 50,151, while short non-commercial positions decreased from 53,254 to 47,914. This led to an increase in the non-commercial net position from -8,545 to 2,247. The weekly closing price remained unchanged at 1.3532 versus 1.3537.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates a bear market.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
In the case of growth, the average border of the indicator around 1.3520 will act as resistance.
Description of indicators
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