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To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:
Yesterday, several excellent signals were formed to enter the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. The latest data on the German labor market, which once again showed growth, as well as a sharp jump in inflation in the eurozone to the level of 5.8% per annum - all this made it possible for euro bulls to protect the 11th figure in the morning. The test and forming a false breakout at the beginning of the European session at 1.092 resulted in a buy signal, but after moving up by 25 points, the pressure on the euro returned. A breakthrough of 1.092 led to a collapse and formed a false breakout at 1.1062. As a result, a buy signal was formed, after which the pair quickly recovered back to 1.092, making it possible to take about 30 points off the market. In the second half of the day, a false breakout was formed at the level of 1.1083, but all this happened even before the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, so I did not wait for the euro's accentuated growth. Repeatedly forming a false breakout at 1.1083 during Powell's speech also led to a signal to buy the euro. As a result, the pair showed an increase of more than 30 points.
Yesterday it became known that Powell supported an interest rate hike by a quarter point this month, which will take place at the committee's next meeting. He also did not rule out more aggressive actions in the future, despite the uncertainty caused by Russia's military actions on the territory of Ukraine and the problems that the world economy may face. The euro reacted to all this with growth, as traders feared a more active rate hike. Today, a number of reports on the activity of the PMI index for the services sector of the eurozone countries will be released in the morning, as well as a composite PMI will be published, which may return pressure on the euro, as recent data in manufacturing activity unexpectedly disappointed economists. An important task for the first half of the day is to protect the base of the 11th figure, since only this scenario will allow us to count on the pair's succeeding recovery in the future. Forming a false breakout at this level creates the first entry point into long positions in hopes of growth in the area of 1.1141. However, in order to see a bullish run for EUR/USD, bulls should be more active and they need to surpass this resistance. Positive changes in the services sector of the eurozone countries and the European Central Bank report from its monetary policy meeting, in which traders will look for hints of tightening monetary policy - all this will lead to an increase in the euro in the first half of the day above 1.1141. A breakthrough and a top-down test of this level will provide a buy signal and open the possibility for the pair to recover to the area of 1.1184. A breakthrough of this range will stop the bearish trend and open a direct road to the highs.: 1.1229 and 1.1271, where I recommend taking profits. The demand for the US dollar will return with the further aggravation of the geopolitical conflict, and bulls not being active at 1.1102 will not cause surprise. In this case, the optimal scenario for buying will be a false breakout at 1.1062, but it is possible to open long positions on the euro immediately to rebound from the lows: 1.1035 and 1.0994 with the goal of an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day.
To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:
The bears did everything possible from them, but it was not possible to maintain the initiative. Basically it all depended on what Powell would say – and he said what many people wanted to hear. Now bears on the euro, no matter how it sounds, will only have to count on the preservation of geopolitical tensions in the world, which they would very much not like. Weak data on the composite eurozone PMI index will also be suitable to strengthen bearish sentiment. Disappointing indicators and protecting the 1.1141 resistance, along with a false breakout there, will lead to opening new short positions in order to further pull the euro along the trend to the area of the 1.1102 level. Moving averages also pass at the level of 1.1041, providing additional assistance to speculative intraday bears. Another breakthrough of the 1.1102 area and a reverse test from the bottom up can take place very quickly, which will provide another signal to open short positions with the prospect of falling to a low like 1.1062, and there is a direct road to 1.1035 and 1.0994, where I recommend taking profits. In case the euro grows and the bears are not active at 1.1141, it is best not to rush with short positions. It is possible that the bulls will start acting more aggressively after the breakthrough of this level, which will also pull the bears' stop orders. Therefore, the optimal scenario will be short positions when forming a false breakout in the area of 1.1184. You can sell EUR/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1229, or even higher - around 1.1271, counting on a downward correction of 15-20 points.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for February 22 showed that both long and short positions have decreased, which led to an increase in the positive delta, as there were much fewer short positions. In the context of a severe geopolitical conflict that has affected almost the whole world, it makes no sense to talk about what the policy of the European Central Bank or the Federal Reserve will be, since in the event of an aggravation of the military conflict, it will make no difference. Now Russia and Ukraine have sat down at the negotiating table, and much will depend on the results of these meetings – there will be a lot of them. In the current conditions, it will not be too correct to consider the COT report, especially considering its secondary information for the trader. I advise you to be quite careful about risky assets and buy euros only as the tense relations between Russia, Ukraine, the EU and the USA weaken. Any new sanctions actions against the Russian Federation will have serious economic consequences, which will affect the financial markets, as well as affect not only the Russian ruble, but also the European currency. This will happen because of Russia's retaliatory measures against sanctions, which the EU will clearly not like – an additional factor of pressure on the euro. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased very slightly from the level of 217,899 to the level of 214,195, while short non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 170,318 to the level of 155,889. This suggests that although there are fewer people willing to sell euros, there are no more bulls from this. It seems that traders prefer to sit on the sidelines of those events that are now rapidly gaining momentum. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position increased to 59,306 against 47,581. The weekly closing price remained unchanged at 1.1309 versus 1.1305 a week earlier.
Indicator signals:
Trading is below the 30 and 50 day moving averages, which indicates a bear market.
Moving averages
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
Bollinger Bands
In case of growth, the average of the indicator in the area of 1.1141 will act as resistance. If the euro falls, the lower border in the area of 1.1065 will provide support.
Description of indicators
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