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The EUR/USD pair was already simply falling without any macroeconomic reasons on Monday. Recall that days like Monday show very well what mood traders are in now, because there are no macroeconomic statistics, and nothing affects their mood. And if we see that the pair falls heavily on Monday, although there was no strong growth on Friday, this means that the mood is now bearish in the market. We, only for a short period of time last week, admitted that the market may have stopped looking towards long positions on the dollar, as it has already worked out in advance all future Federal Reserve rate hikes. As you can see, this conclusion turned out to be absolutely wrong, and the euro has been falling briskly for two days in a row. It consolidated below the ascending trend line and dropped to the lows of the last three weeks. Only 200 points remain before its 20-year lows. Thus, we expect that the euro will continue to fall in the coming weeks, as the fundamental background still speaks in favor of the US currency.
Everything was very good in terms of Monday's trading signals. The first sell signal was the only one. It formed near the Senkou Span B line, after which the price went down by about 60 points, and towards yesterday evening, it was necessary to manually close the short position, since the pair failed to reach the nearest target level of 1.0120. We also want to note that the Senkou Span B line on the 4-hour timeframe was much lower than our placement yesterday. The fact is that it began to rise, and it is best to use this line at those levels where it takes a horizontal shape for a long time.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro over the past six months have raised a huge number of questions. The chart above clearly shows that for most of 2022 they showed an openly bullish mood of commercial players, but at the same time, the euro fell steadily at the same time. At this time, the situation has changed, but NOT in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, and the euro was falling, now the mood is bearish and... the euro is also falling. Therefore, for the time being, we do not see any grounds for the euro's growth, because the vast majority of factors remain against it. During the reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group increased by 8,400, and the number of shorts - by 4,100. Accordingly, the net position increased by about 4,000 contracts, which is a negligible change for the euro. The mood of major players remains bearish. From our point of view, this fact very eloquently indicates that at this time even commercial traders still do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 35,000. Therefore, we can state that not only does the demand for the US dollar remain high, but that the demand for the euro is also quite low. The fact that major players are in no hurry to buy the euro may lead to a new, even greater fall. The euro has not been able to show even a tangible correction over the past six months or a year, not to mention something more. The highest upward movement was about 400 points. The pair has just managed to correct by 400 points over the past four weeks. Has the plan been completed?
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 16. European inflation and GDP this week will show how close the European economy is to recession.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 16. The pound seems to have exhausted all its growth potential.
Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on August 16. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.
The pair completed the upward trend very quickly on the hourly timeframe and now rushed down again. We believe that globally everything is going according to plan, as the euro corrected up by 400 points, so now it has sufficient technical grounds for the resumption of the downward trend. Moreover, the market ignored the 0.75% Fed rate hike a couple of weeks ago, and now it can work it out. We highlight the following levels for trading on Tuesday - 1.0000, 1.0072, 1.0120, 1.0269, 1.0340-1.0366, 1.0485, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.0245) and Kijun-sen lines (1.0258). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. No important report will be published again in the European Union and the United States on August 16. The US industrial production report is noteworthy, but we do not expect a reaction to it more than 20-30 points.
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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