28.09.202215:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Should we expect a fall towards 20-year lows?

The dollar started the week briskly, continuing to strengthen today. Its DXY index set another record on Wednesday, hitting 114.72. Yesterday's positive macro statistics from the United States reflected the stability of its economy in the face of growing inflation around the world and high geopolitical tensions.

Thus, orders for durable goods (excluding defense and aviation) grew in August by +1.3% (against the forecast of growth by +0.2% and the previous growth by +0.3%). The indicator of basic orders for durable goods declined by -0.2%, less than the expected decline of -0.4%. At the same time, the report on the US housing market showed a significant increase in the number of new homes sold in August (from 532,000 in July to 685,000).

In addition, data on Tuesday showed a stronger-than-expected improvement in consumer sentiment in September. There was an upward correction in the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board to 108.0 points from 103.6 points a month earlier. This is the highest level in five months, and combined with a significant increase in August, the index is 12.7 points higher than two months ago, economists say.

Investors still expect further tightening of monetary policy by the Fed. According to a recent Reuters survey, "the year will end at 4.25%–4.50% of the Fed rate. If it does, it will be the highest rate since early 2008, before the global financial crisis, and 75 basis points higher than the 3.50%–3.75% forecast just two weeks ago."

The dollar index (DXY) has already reached a new high today in the immediate vicinity of the next "round" mark of 115.00, and it seems nothing prevents it from rising even higher, up to record highs of 20 years ago near the marks of 120.00, 121.00. Investors are actively avoiding purchases in the stock market, while growing geopolitical tensions and fears of a slowdown in the global economy are additionally supporting the dollar, increasing demand for it as a safe-haven asset.

Today, at the beginning of the American trading session, data on the trade balance and home sales in the US for August will be released, and at 14:15 (GMT), Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech.

As for the euro, it continues to decline actively against its main competitor in the foreign exchange market—the dollar. Even though European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde noted the regulator's readiness to continue raising the interest rate, despite the increased risks of a recession in the region's economy, the euro is under pressure from weak macro statistics and high geopolitical tensions in the euro area due to the events in Ukraine and in connection with the destruction of three strands of the Nord Stream gas pipelines near the Danish island of Bornholm. According to representatives of Nord Stream AG, which is the operator of the project, critical damage has been recorded, the timing of which is still unknown.

As of writing, EUR/USD was trading near the 0.9550 mark, 50 points below the lower limit of the descending channel broken at the beginning of the week on the weekly chart, and testing the lower limit of the descending channel on the daily price chart for a breakdown.

From a fundamental point of view, we should expect at least a strong bearish momentum in the EUR/USD pair, and at a maximum, a further fall of the pair towards 20-year lows, when it was trading near 0.8700, 0.8600. In general, the downward dynamics of EUR/USD remains.