empty
 
 
Chystáte sa opustiť
www.instaforex.eu >
webovú stránku, ktorú prevádzkuje
INSTANT TRADING EU LTD
Otvoriť účet

14.02.202314:30 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Dollar: brief summary and near-term outlook

Tieto informácie poskytujeme retailovým a profesionálnym klientom ako súčasť marketingovej komunikácie. Neobsahujú investičné poradenstvo, investičné odporúčania, ponuku ani výzvu na vykonanie transakcie alebo použitie stratégie na finančných nástrojoch a ani by sa tak nemalo s nimi zaobchádzať. Minulá výkonnosť nie je zárukou ani predikciou budúceho výkonu. Spoločnosť Instant Trading EU Ltd. neručí a nepreberá žiadnu zodpovednosť za správnosť a úplnosť poskytovaných informácií ani za stratu, ktorá by vyplynula z akejkoľvek investície založenej na analýze, predpovedi alebo iných informáciách poskytnutých zamestnancom spoločnosti alebo iným spôsobom. Celé vylúčenie zodpovednosti nájdete tu.

Exchange Rates 14.02.2023 analysis

As we noted in our review yesterday, "the market needs new drivers," and market participants who follow the dollar quotes need new information regarding the current economic situation in the United States.

In this regard, market participants will focus on the inflation report of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for January.

According to forecasts, U.S. annual CPI may fall to 6.2% from 6.5% in December. The annual core CPI may also decline to 5.5% in January from 5.7% a month earlier.

This is negative news for the dollar, and we see the dollar and its DXY index declining since the opening of today's trading day.

Thus, as of writing, DXY futures were trading near 102.86, about 100 points below last week's 6-week high of 103.85. The report from the Labor Department released earlier this month showed that the dollar had strengthened and its index had grown stronger in January. According to the report, nonfarm payrolls rose by 517,000 in January, while the overall unemployment rate fell to 3.4% from 3.5% a month earlier. The actual data was much stronger than forecast (+185,000, following December's +260,000 increase). Meanwhile, the average hourly earnings of Americans continued to rise in January.

Immediately after the publication of this report, the dollar strengthened sharply, and its DXY index closed the trading day on Friday at around 102.75, 2% above the local 10-month low of 100.68, reached the day before the release. However, economists stressed that this is still not enough for the dollar to reverse the negative dynamics. There is still a threat of a renewed decline in DXY towards the psychologically important level of 100.00.

The breakdown of the recent local low at 100.68 will update the scenario again, and the breakdown of the 102.52 local support level will be the first signal. A break of the 100.00 round level will give a new impetus to the dollar's decline, sending the DXY towards the lows of 2 years ago and the 90.00 mark.

Exchange Rates 14.02.2023 analysis

Thus, today's inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be key for the dollar and its direction in the coming days.

If today's data on inflation point to an even stronger slowdown, then the dollar may decline sharply.

At the moment, the dollar is still receiving support from the tense geopolitical situation in the world and high inflation. According to the University of Michigan report published last Friday, the component of the report in terms of inflation expectations of Americans rose to 4.2% in the year ahead (from 3.9% a month earlier).

According to the statement of the Fed after the February 1 meeting, further rate hikes will be needed because inflation is still high, and there is not enough information available yet to talk about a sustained slowdown.

Jurij Tolin
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2024

Open trading account

InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.




Teraz opúšťate stránku www.instaforex.eu, ktorá patrí spoločnosti INSTANT TRADING EU LTD
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.

Turn "Do Not Track" off