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The price test of 1.0680 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the EUR/USD pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. Weak US data on new home sales helped determine the pair's direction, but EUR/USD did not actively rise. This suggests that the euro will remain under pressure, and today's weak Eurozone data may be the next reason to sell. First of all, reports on the Eurozone M3 Money Supply, lending to the private sector and the Consumer Confidence indicator may warrant investor attention. Weak data will exert pressure on EUR/USD, as well as a soft stance from European Central Bank official Frank Elderson, who supports his colleagues on the path of more rate cuts this year. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Scenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches 1.0705 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0727. At the level of 1.0727, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today, but only if buyers are active near today's high and strong data. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0688 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to a reverse market upturn. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0705 and 1.0727.
Scenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the level of 1.0688 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0665, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will increase in case the price fails to consolidate near the intraday high and if the ECB officials show a soft stance. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0705 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0688 and 1.0665.
The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
The thick green line is the estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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