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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday consolidated above the corrective level of 1.2931 and continued to rise towards the next level of 1.3011. A rebound from this level today would suggest a reversal in favor of the US dollar and some decline towards the lower line of the ascending trend channel. However, the position of the price within the channel continues to characterize the current trend as "bullish." Thus, there are no signals of a trend reversal at this time. The wave situation changed last week. The last downward wave (which started forming on June 12) was able to break the low of the previous downward wave, and the new upward wave (which is still forming at this time) managed to break the peak of the previous upward wave. Thus, we got the first sign of a trend change to "bullish" after the "bearish" one that did not materialize. The growth of the pound may continue. I have many doubts about the sustainability of such a trend, but graphical analysis shows what to expect in the near future.
The informational background on Friday put even more pressure on the bears' positions. While the producer price index allowed the dollar to grow at least a little, the consumer sentiment index turned out to be weaker than traders' expectations. Meanwhile, the pound was rising throughout the day, so I can't even say that the informational background was the cause of another fall in the US currency. However, by Friday, traders had received all the necessary information about the state of the US economy to continuously get rid of the dollar. Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak, but I don't think he will be able to support the dollar. For that, his rhetoric needs to become more "hawkish," and for that, inflation in the US needs to start accelerating again.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the British currency after four bounces from the level of 1.2620 and then consolidated above the corrective level of 61.8%–1.2745. If you look closely at the 4-hour chart, there are no obstacles to further growth of the pound up to the level of 1.3044, to which the price continues to move. Currently, the pound has good graphical growth prospects.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became even more "bullish" over the past reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 28,563, while the number of short positions rose by 5,914. The bulls still have a solid advantage. The gap between the number of long and short positions is already 85,000: 135,000 versus 50,000. In my opinion, the pound still has prospects for a fall, but the COT reports and graphical analysis suggest otherwise. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has increased from 98,000 to 135,000, and the number of short positions has decreased from 54,000 to 50,000. I believe that over time, major players will again start to get rid of long positions or increase short positions, as all possible factors for buying the pound have already been worked out. However, it should not be forgotten that this is just an assumption. Graphical analysis still indicates the weakness of the bears, who couldn't even "take" the level of 1.2620.
News Calendar for the USA and the UK:
On Monday, the economic event calendar contains only one entry, which is unlikely to help the dollar. The impact of the informational background on market sentiment today may be present, but I think it will be weak.
Forecast for GBP/USD and Recommendations for Traders:
Pound sales are possible today on a rebound from the level of 1.3011 on the hourly chart or from the level of 1.3044 on the 4-hour chart with a target of the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Purchases could be considered on consolidation above the level of 1.2931 with targets of 1.3011 and 1.3044. These trades can be kept open now.
The Fibonacci level grids are built on 1.2036 – 1.2892 on the hourly chart and 1.4248 – 1.0404 on the 4-hour chart.
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