15.07.202416:11 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on July 15th (analysis of morning deals). The demand for the euro persists

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.0884 and planned to make decisions about entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. A decline and the formation of a false breakout at that level led to an excellent entry point for buying the euro, resulting in the pair rising by more than 30 points. The technical picture was revised for the second half of the day.

To open long positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:

Of course, our focus will shift to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech and his comments related to the latest inflation data. The more Powell talks about progress and achieving the target level, the higher the chances of interest rate cuts as early as this fall—perhaps even in September. Such statements will negatively impact the dollar, leading to further development of the bullish trend in EUR/USD. In case of a restraining tone from the Fed Chair, the pair might decline. In this case, I prefer to act from the new support at 1.0885, where the moving averages, playing on the bulls' side, are located. The formation of a false breakout will become a suitable entry point for long positions, aiming for the euro to recover to the resistance area of 1.0919, formed by the results of the first half of the day. Breaking and updating this range from top to bottom will strengthen the pair with a chance to rise to the resistance of 1.0939. The farthest target will be the maximum of 1.0960, where I will fix the profit. Testing this level will allow the bullish trend to continue. In the scenario of EUR/USD declining and a lack of activity around 1.0885 in the second half of the day, I will only enter long positions after forming a false breakout around the next support at 1.0864. I plan to open long positions immediately on a rebound from the minimum of 1.0840, targeting an intraday upward correction of 30-35 points.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:

Sellers are still adhering to a defensive tactic, and I expect their first appearance only around 1.0919, and then only after a strong stance from the Fed Chair. A false breakout will provide a suitable entry point for short positions, targeting a decline in the pair to the support of 1.0885, where the moving averages, slightly below, are playing on the bulls' side. Breaking and consolidating below this range, as well as a reverse test from bottom to top, will return pressure on the euro and give another point for selling with a movement to the minimum area of 1.0864, where I expect more active euro buyers to appear. The farthest target will be the area of 1.0840, where I will fix the profit. Testing this level will significantly damage the bullish market. In the case of an upward movement of EUR/USD in the second half of the day, developing the bullish trend, and the absence of bears at 1.0919, which is quite possible, buyers will manage to achieve further growth of the pair. In this case, I will postpone selling until testing the next resistance at 1.0939. There, I will also sell, but only after a failed consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0960, targeting a downward correction of 30-35 points.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for July 2, there was a reduction in short and long positions. The market needed a break, which participants took advantage of. The lack of important statistics last week supported the demand for risk assets, but the reports do not reflect this. Soon, we will have an important speech by Powell, which will help determine the summer direction of the dollar, as well as inflation data in the US for June, which can turn the market. For this reason, it is not worth writing off the American dollar yet. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased by 3,001 to the level of 164,369, while short non-commercial positions fell by 1,913 to the level of 173,888. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 1,902.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further growth of the euro.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.0885 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence - convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
• Bollinger Bands. Period 20.
• Non-commercial traders - speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.