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The test of the 1.2980 price occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the pound in continuation of the upward trend. Adding to this are the inflation data from the UK, which, contrary to all economists' expectations, continued to rise for the second consecutive month—resulting in an upward movement of almost 30 points and updating the target level of 1.3006. For this reason, I decided to release an updated forecast for the second half of the day without waiting for the US session. Most likely, we will hang in the channel for some time, and only American fundamental statistics will trigger a new movement of the pair. Expected ahead are figures on the number of building permits issued, the number of new housing starts, and changes in industrial production volumes in the US. Speeches by FOMC members Thomas Barkin and Christopher Waller, who may support the idea of rate cuts, could provoke new purchases of the pound. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3017 (green line on the chart) with a target growth level of 1.3044 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3044, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). You can count on the pound's growth today in continuation of the upward trend, aided by weak US statistics. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2997 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.3017 and 1.3044 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.2997 level (red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.2968 level, where I will exit the sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will assert themselves after a failed consolidation around the daily high, but this is unlikely. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3017 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.2997 and 1.2968 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make market entry decisions very carefully. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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