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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0813 price level coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The same situation occurred at the 1.0828 level, where, at the time of the test, the MACD had moved significantly above the zero mark, making it difficult to count on further growth under these conditions.
In the second half of the day, very important labor market statistics and the results of the two-day FOMC meeting are expected. The FOMC's decision on the main interest rate, an accompanying statement, and a press conference by Jerome Powell, where he will share his thoughts on inflation and future policy, could lead to a surge in volatility. Additionally, before the Fed meeting, ADP employment change data will be released, and significant deviations from forecasts will also lead to market movements. For the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on Scenario No. 1, despite the MACD indicator readings, as I expect strong and directional movements.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0842 (green line on the chart) to rise to 1.0870. At the 1.0870 point, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35 point move from the entry point. A strong upward movement of the euro today can only be expected following a dovish stance from Fed officials on interest rates. Note: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and just beginning to rise.
Scenario No. 2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0822 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0842 and 1.0870 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I will sell the euro after reaching the 1.0822 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0795 level. I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20-25 point move in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return in case of a hawkish stance and hints at further fighting inflation by the Fed. Note: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.
Scenario No. 2: Today, I plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0842 price when the MACD indicator is overbought. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0822 and 1.0795 can be expected.
Note: Beginner traders on the Forex market need to make market entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
Keep in mind that successful trading requires a clear plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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