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In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1131 level and planned to base my trading decisions on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart to see what happened. The upward movement occurred, but there was no false breakout at the 1.1131 level, so with volatility of just 15 points, I ended up without any entry points. The technical picture was not revised for the second half of the day.
To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:
The lack of Eurozone statistics, combined with the euro's recent overbought condition, are the main reasons the market did not continue its trend. Moreover, the FOMC meeting minutes are expected to be released in the second half of the day. It's unlikely that this document will reveal anything new, so the outlook for selling the dollar and buying the euro remains, but these actions should be taken in a highly unbalanced market, as volatility is unlikely to return in the second half of the day. Given the current conditions, with the euro being heavily overbought, it is best to act on a decline and after a false breakout forms around the support level of 1.1102, where the moving averages are located, favoring the bulls. This would be a favorable condition for opening long positions, anticipating further euro growth and a strengthening bullish trend. A breakout and consolidation above 1.1131, a significant monthly resistance, will lead to a strengthening of the pair with a chance of rising to the 1.1160 level. The ultimate target will be the 1.1188 high, where profits will be taken. If EUR/USD declines and there is minimal activity around 1.1102 in the second half of the day, sellers will have a chance for a more substantial correction. In that case, I will only enter after a false breakout forms around the next support level at 1.1073. I plan to open long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.1053, targeting an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day.
To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:
Only a very hawkish FOMC minutes release will allow euro sellers to achieve any correction in the pair, which has been long overdue. In the event of further attempts at euro growth, I expect sellers to show up around the 1.1131 resistance level, which we did not reach in the first half of the day. A false breakout there will be a reason to open short positions, targeting a decline towards the 1.1102 support. A breakout and consolidation below this range, followed by a retest from below, will provide another selling opportunity with a move towards 1.1073, where I expect more active buying interest. The ultimate target will be the 1.1053 level, where profits will be taken. If EUR/USD continues to rise in the second half of the day, continuing the trend, and there are no bears at 1.1131, which is more likely, buyers will have the chance for further, more substantial growth. In that case, I will postpone selling until the next resistance at 1.1160 is tested. I will also sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.1188, targeting a downward correction of 30-35 points.
In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for August 13, there was an almost equal increase in short positions and a reduction in long positions. This indicates a continued market equilibrium following statements from several U.S. Federal Reserve representatives that it's time to start easing monetary policy. We have an important event in August ahead: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, during which many investors and traders will try to understand the future course of monetary policy. Also, be sure to closely monitor the economic calendar and incoming data. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions fell by 3,587 to 182,212, while short non-commercial positions increased by 3,010 to 155,229. As a result, the gap between long and short positions increased by 1,036.
Indicator Signals:
Moving Averages:
Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further growth in the pair.
Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.
Bollinger Bands:
In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.1102 will act as support.
Indicator Descriptions:
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