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On Friday, the British pound demonstrated a substantial but speculative rise of 125 pips. The Marlin oscillator has deeply penetrated overbought territory; its signal line is currently below the July 2023 high. Once it reaches that peak, the pound could experience a significant decline. Last year, the pound collapsed by 1100 pips.
Today is a public holiday in England, providing an opportunity for consolidation below the 1.3220 level. After consolidating above this level, we expect a rise towards the nearest target of 1.3300. The next target could be 1.3360. After that, we'll have the Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings.
On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator moves in a prolonged sideways range. This movement could continue, with no signs of a reversal yet. However, for a reversal to occur, the oscillator needs to decline slightly before potentially returning to the upper boundary of its range and, if possible, go up from it to create a reversal pattern.
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