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The first price test of 1.3120 occurred when the MACD indicator started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 pips. Weak US data related to the situation in the labor market did not go unnoticed, leading to a rise in the pound and putting pressure on the US dollar. Today, in the first half of the day, we are only waiting for a report on the Construction PMI data for the UK, and only very weak figures will be able to harm the upward prospects of the pound, which are currently evident. For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when it reaches the entry point at 1.3156, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to the level of 1.3185, plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 1.3185, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the level. A substantial rise in the pound can be expected after strong PMI data. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.3140 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.3156 and 1.3185.
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after testing the level of 1.3140, plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3111, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Selling the pound should only be considered after weak data. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.3156 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3140 and 1.3111.
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
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