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The price test of 1.1111 occurred when the MACD indicator started its upward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. However, despite weak US data, the pair did not actively rise, resulting in losses. By the middle of the US session, a price test of 1.1084 and a subsequent test of this level while the MACD was in the oversold area led to another entry point for buying the euro. This time, the pair rose more than 20 pips, which allowed traders to compensate for losses and earn a little bit. Today, in the first half of the day, it's necessary to review reports on Germany's industrial production, trade balance, the Eurozone GDP, and employment. The speech by European Central Bank Executive Board Member Frank Elderson will also be the focus. Only very good data will help the euro rise. For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Scenario No 1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1130, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 1.1166. At 1.1166, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting the euro to rise today in the first half of the day will only be feasible if there is good data from the Eurozone and Germany. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2: I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1107 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1130 and 1.1166.
Scenario No 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.1107, plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.1080, where I will exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will return today if there is a failed attempt at correction in the first half of the day. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2: I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.1130 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1107 and 1.1080.
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
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