03.10.202409:12 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Novice Traders on October 3. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1062 price level coincided with when the MACD indicator had just begun its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair dropped more than 30 pips, but we only reached the target level of 1.1030 in today's Asian session. Yesterday's strong ADP labor market data triggered a fresh euro sell-off and strengthened the U.S. dollar, along with comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting a more cautious approach to future interest rate cuts. The euro could continue its decline today, and there are reasons for this: the PMI index for the Eurozone services sector, the composite PMI index, and the producer price index for the Eurozone. All of these reports are likely to disappoint, highlighting the poor state of the European economy and leading to another sell-off of risk assets. Regarding intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches around 1.1052 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1093. At 1.1093, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expect a rise in the euro today in the first half of the day only after strong Eurozone data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1025 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1052 and 1.1093 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1025 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0993 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair today will return if there is an unsuccessful attempt to rise above the daily high and weak data from the services sector. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1052 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1025 and 1.0993 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line: Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.

Thick green line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line: Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.

Thick red line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders in the forex market should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.