16.10.202414:58 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today marks the second consecutive day of gold trading with a positive bias.

Amid ongoing geopolitical risks, investors are disappointed by the lack of details regarding China's fiscal stimulus, which is diminishing interest in riskier assets. This is evident from the weaker tone in stock markets and serves as a key factor favoring gold as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, investor risk aversion is driving down U.S. Treasury yields, providing further support for gold prices.

However, growing expectations of more cautious monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve, and hopes for an anticipated 25 basis point rate cut in November, act as a tailwind for U.S. bond yields. As a result, the U.S. dollar has risen to its highest level in two months, discouraging bullish traders from establishing new positions in gold.

From a technical perspective, any further upward movement will face resistance near the historic high of $2685–2686, reached in September. Beyond that lies the psychological level of $2700, which, if sustainably breached, could pave the way for the continuation of the multi-month uptrend, supported by positive oscillators on the daily chart.

On the other hand, immediate support is located around the $2655 level, below which the price could drop to the next support level at $2630. Further declines are likely to attract buyers but would be limited by the key level of $2600. If this level is decisively breached, it could trigger technical selling and pave the way for deeper losses.