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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The test at the 1.2972 level occurred when the MACD indicator started to move down from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point to sell the pound. However, shortly after, the price at 1.2972 was retested twice with the MACD in the oversold area. At this point, it became clear that the pound was not likely to go down further. Considering sellers' disregard for strong U.S. data, I decided to exit short positions and buy the pound, following the recent upward trend. As a result, the pair rose by 30 pips. Today, with no significant events aside from the UK's Autumn Treasury Forecast, the pound has a good chance to continue its upward momentum. I'll focus on scenarios #1 and #2 for intraday strategy.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at an entry point near 1.3021 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 1.3058 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3058, I'll exit the buy position and open a sell position (expecting a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction). Today's growth expectation aligns with a new upward trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2985 level when the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and may trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the 1.3021 and 1.3058 levels is expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after breaking below 1.2985 (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.2944, where I'll exit the sell position and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction). Selling the pound is advisable only if there is weak buying activity near the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below zero and just beginning its decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3021 level when the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and could lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the 1.2985 and 1.2944 levels is expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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