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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair returned to the support zone of 1.2892–1.2931 on Monday. A rebound from this zone suggests a possible reversal in favor of the pound and a resumption of growth towards the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3054. It's challenging for the bulls to launch an attack, but this week's news flow could support them. Although the odds are low at the moment, various scenarios remain possible.
The wave structure is clear. The last completed wave down broke the low of the previous wave, while the most recent upward wave didn't come close to the previous high. This suggests the ongoing formation of a "bearish" trend. While an upward corrective wave from the 1.2931 level could be expected, technical signals alone won't suffice—bulls need the determination to push higher, which is currently limited.
Monday brought little news for the pound, and not much is expected today. The ISM Services Index will be important today, but it will lose significance by Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. With two central bank meetings and the U.S. elections, this is a highly volatile mix that could support both bulls and bears. It's worth noting that the U.S. election is a complex event for the currency market. The current assumption is that a Trump victory would support the dollar, while a Harris victory would have the opposite effect. However, I believe it's not that straightforward. Trump's policies could be inflationary, but that doesn't necessarily mean the dollar would rally immediately after his potential victory. Overall, I anticipate that the dollar's upward trend may continue in the coming months; however, the pound's upward correction has been weak, suggesting it might not be complete. I expect to see growth toward 1.3054, possibly even higher.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 1.3044 corrective level, suggesting a potential resumption of the decline toward the next corrective level of 61.8% at 1.2745. Currently, the process of growth has started, so another rebound from the 1.3044 level would once again favor the U.S. dollar. A break above 1.3044 could indicate stronger growth for the pound; however, in my opinion, the news flow doesn't yet support this expectation.
Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders became less "bullish" in the last reporting week, though it still remains "bullish." The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 7,967, while short positions increased by 253. Bulls maintain a solid advantage, with a 66,000-contract gap: 132,000 longs versus 66,000 shorts.
In my opinion, the pound still has potential for decline, though the COT reports have yet to indicate a strong reinforcement of bearish positions. Over the past three months, long positions have increased from 102,000 to 132,000, while short positions have grown from 55,000 to 66,000. I believe that, over time, professional players will start shedding long positions or increasing short positions (as is currently the case with the euro), since all potential drivers for buying the pound have already been exhausted. Technical analysis suggests that this process may begin soon (or may already have started, judging by the wave patterns).
News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:
On Tuesday, the economic events calendar has two entries, one of which can be considered significant. The news flow will influence market sentiment, particularly in the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
New selling opportunities in the pair are possible after a rebound from the 1.3044 level on the 4-hour chart, targeting 1.2931. Buying the pound was possible from the 1.2931 level with a target of 1.3044, but the bulls are currently very weak. This week's news flow could override technical signals.
Fibonacci levels are plotted based on 1.2892–1.2298 on the hourly chart and 1.4248–1.0404 on the 4-hour chart.
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