05.11.202412:54 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold is attracting buyers on pullbacks, supported by multiple factors. Demand for safe-haven assets, influenced by tense U.S. presidential elections and the risk of further geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, offers some support for gold.

Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve will further lower interest rates, amid signs of a cooling U.S. labor market, continue to reduce U.S. Treasury yields. This has prompted renewed selling of the U.S. dollar, creating an additional supportive factor for gold.

However, the upward potential for gold remains limited, as traders are hesitant to initiate aggressive positions ahead of this week's key event risks—the U.S. presidential elections and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Alongside these risks, today's release of the ISM Services PMI during the U.S. session will be viewed as a short-term trading opportunity.

From a technical standpoint, the recent pullback from the all-time high may indicate fading buyer momentum. However, the mixed daily chart oscillators suggest exercising caution before positioning for further losses. Therefore, any decline is likely to encounter support near the horizontal range of $2730-2715. A break below this may prompt a test of the next support at the round level of $2700, followed by additional support at $2690. A sustained move below these levels would signal a bearish breakout and open the path for a more significant drop.

On the other hand, the $2750 level serves as immediate resistance, followed by the $2790 level, which aligns with last Thursday's all-time high. Beyond that lies the round level of $2800, with the resistance of the ascending channel located at $2820. Sustained strength above these levels would act as a new catalyst for bullish momentum, allowing gold to resume its recent, well-established upward trend.