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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 152.05 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pair. As a result, the drop exceeded 40 pips, even breaking below the target level of 151.65. However, the situation changed quickly today. The dollar rose due to Donald Trump's nearly secured victory in the U.S. presidential election and will likely continue to rise. Betting on further yen weakening can continue until the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting takes place tomorrow. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 154.37 (green line on the chart) with a target to rise to 155.34 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.34, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). The pair's rise is expected to continue, but buying on pullbacks is best. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 153.77 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 154.37 and 155.34 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks below the 153.77 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be the 153.27 level, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). The pair is unlikely to face downward pressure today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 154.37 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 153.77 and 153.27 can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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