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The euro has retraced over half of the black "Trump candle." If the euro is in a hurry, it could already be heading towards the 1.0667 level to surpass the low of that candle. However, we do not believe the euro is in a rush. The technical convergence between the price and the Marlin oscillator remains strong and could propel the pair toward the target level 1.0882.
The ongoing rise in equity markets supports risk appetite, encouraging big players to target stop-loss orders of premature dollar buyers. A price rise to 1.1010 would suffice for this strategy. If major players take an even more aggressive approach, they could push the price to 1.1186, where a significant volume of orders has accumulated in the 1.1120-1.1160 range over the past three months. This scenario would be ideal for a synchronized reversal alongside the stock market into a long-term downtrend. However, this scenario is unlikely to materialize if the price falls below the support at 1.0724, which could shift focus toward 1.0667 or 1.0636.
On the H4 chart, the price has turned downward from the MACD Line, and the Marlin oscillator has also reversed downward without entering positive territory. This could signal the end of the upward correction.
Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break below 1.0777 would open the path to the target at 1.0724.
Bullish Scenario: A break above the MACD Line (1.0828) would pave the way toward 1.0882.
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