08.11.202411:44 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the Japanese yen is trying to build on the previous day's recovery. Recent statements from Japanese authorities have been the primary factor supporting the yen, although doubts about the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates further limit the yen's recovery.

At the same time, expectations that Trump's policies will stimulate growth and inflation overshadow the dovish outlook of the Federal Reserve. This, in turn, helps boost U.S. Treasury yields, which act as a headwind for the yen. Additionally, U.S. dollar buying limits further declines in the USD/JPY pair.

Yesterday's decline in USD/JPY halted at horizontal support at 152.65. This level now acts as a key point; a break below it could accelerate the pair's corrective decline toward the round figure of 152.00, with further movement potentially targeting the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Sustained selling below this level would suggest that the upward movement from September's monthly swing low has run its course, paving the way for deeper losses in the pair.

On the other hand, the 153.50 zone may serve as the immediate hurdle, followed by the supply zone around 153.90. A further push above the round figure of 154.00 could lift USD/JPY toward the multi-month high of 154.70, last reached on Thursday. The bullish momentum could then extend beyond to the key resistance level of 155.00, with potential resistance near 155.20, marking the July 30 swing high.

Despite the recent decline, USD/JPY bulls maintain the upper hand as long as it trades above the 200-day SMA.