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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline, breaking below the 261.8% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.0662. This suggests that the downward movement could extend to the next corrective level of 323.6% at 1.0532. A close above 1.0662 could signal a reversal in favor of the euro and a potential rise toward the resistance zone of 1.0781–1.0797. The trend remains bearish.
The wave structure is clear. The last completed upward wave failed to surpass the peak of the previous wave, while the new downward wave easily broke the last low. This confirms the continued formation of a bearish trend. The corrective wave seems complete, and the bulls have entirely lost control of the market. Regaining momentum would require significant effort, which seems unlikely in the near term.
There was no significant news on Monday. On Tuesday morning, the final inflation reading for October in Germany was released. Inflation in Germany, the EU, and the UK could accelerate in the coming months. While the ECB appears unconcerned, the Bank of England is notably more focused on this issue. Since the current inflation levels don't influence the ECB's policy stance, the euro received no support from the report. Numerous factors continue to weigh on the euro, including persistent issues in the Eurozone and an emerging political crisis in Germany.
Looking at longer-term charts, it becomes clear that bulls never truly had an advantage. The pair remained range-bound for nearly a year and a half and is now entering a new long-term downtrend.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the dollar and consolidated below the 76.4% corrective level at 1.0747, signaling further potential declines toward the next corrective level of 100.0% at 1.0603. The CCI indicator currently signals a potential bullish divergence, which could suggest a temporary rise. However, the market has seen numerous such divergences recently, and there is insufficient evidence for a strong euro recovery. A rebound from the 1.0603 level might temporarily halt the euro's decline.
During the last reporting week, speculators opened 587 long positions and closed 28,064 short positions. The sentiment of the Non-commercial group shifted to bearish. Speculators now hold 160,000 long positions and 181,000 short positions.
For eight consecutive weeks, major players have reduced their exposure to the euro. This indicates the beginning of a new bearish trend or at least a strong correction on a global scale. The dollar's prior decline—driven by expectations of FOMC easing—has already been priced in, leaving fewer reasons to sell the dollar. While new drivers may emerge, the dollar's continued strength remains more likely. Technical analysis also supports the start of a long-term bearish trend, and an extended EUR/USD decline appears imminent. The latest COT data does not suggest a shift toward a bullish trend.
On November 12, the economic calendar includes two relatively minor events. The fundamental background's influence on market sentiment is expected to be weak.
Selling opportunities were viable after a rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0662, which has now been reached. A close below this level allows for continued selling, with targets at 1.0603 and 1.0532. Buying opportunities can be considered on a rebound from the 1.0603 level, but ambitious targets should be avoided. Bulls remain exceptionally weak.
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