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On Tuesday, the euro tried to push through the 1.0636 support level, closing the day with a 33-pip decline. The price narrowly missed the 1.0590 target by six pips; however, if we consider the notable April low at 1.0602 as the target, it has been surpassed by six pips, indicating the possibility of a correction due to the current convergence.
The convergence is on the verge of being neutralized, meaning the oscillator's signal line could drop below its October 17 low of -0.0196. If the price breaks through the 1.0590 support, the next target becomes a significant level at 1.0483, which is the January 2023 low, or, more precisely, the range of 1.0449–1.0483. The price needs to consolidate above the 1.0636 level to avoid a rapid drop. Whether the convergence can achieve this will likely become clear this evening when U.S. inflation data is released.
The Marlin oscillator's signal line has reshaped the convergence into a horizontal wedge on the four-hour chart. The overall technical structure points to a likely downward breakout. Today's U.S. inflation data will significantly impact the market. The October CPI is forecasted to increase from 2.4% y/y to 2.6% y/y.
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