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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair declined to the 323.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0532, but by the end of the day, it rebounded from this level. This indicates the initial signs of a potential reversal in favor of the euro, with a possible rise toward the 261.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0662. However, consolidation below 1.0532 would increase the likelihood of further declines toward the next target at 1.0420.
The wave structure remains clear. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the latest downward wave easily breached the last low. This confirms the continuation of the bearish trend. Bullish traders have completely lost control of the market. Regaining it would require considerable effort, which appears unlikely in the near term. For the trend to reverse, the pair would need to rise above 1.0800, which seems improbable in the short term.
Thursday's information flow, particularly the GDP and industrial production reports, created an intriguing market dynamic. While Q3 GDP remained unchanged at +0.4% q/q; industrial production declined by 2.0% m/m and 2.8% y/y. The GDP report was neutral, but the industrial production data was negative for the euro. After weeks of sustained bearish activity, bears appeared to take a brief pause.
Jerome Powell's evening remarks, which emphasized a lack of urgency in monetary easing, may have further bolstered bearish sentiment. He noted that the U.S. economy is performing well, inflation is decreasing, and there's no labor market crisis. However, the market seemed ready for a short break. I believe the 1.0532 level (with intraday dips to 1.0500) may temporarily hold off bears, potentially leading to a slight recovery in the euro above this level.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated below the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0603. The CCI indicator has formed a bullish divergence, signaling a possible rise in the pair. However, similar divergences have been frequent lately. While significant growth is unlikely, a minor uptick may occur as conditions on two charts now suggest the possibility of an upward correction.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
During the latest reporting week:
For eight consecutive weeks, major players have been shedding the euro. This likely signals the start of a new bearish trend or at least a substantial global correction. The key driver for a weaker dollar—expectations of FOMC monetary easing—has been priced in. While new reasons for dollar selling may emerge over time, the greenback's strength remains more probable. Graphical analysis, including Fibonacci retracement levels, also confirms the onset of a long-term bearish trend. Therefore, I am preparing for a prolonged EUR/USD decline. The latest COT report does not indicate a shift toward a bullish trend.
On November 15, the economic calendar includes two interesting but not particularly impactful events. The news flow is unlikely to significantly influence market sentiment today.
Sell opportunities were viable following a rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0662, which was achieved. Closing below this level allowed for continued selling with targets at 1.0603 and 1.0532, both of which were also reached. Today, limited buying with minimal volume can be considered, targeting 1.0662. However, a close below 1.0532 would confirm the continuation of the downtrend.
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