18.11.202413:44 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen remains under pressure despite concerns about potential intervention.

Today, ahead of the European session, the yen attempted to recover much of its earlier losses against the U.S. dollar. Speculation about possible intervention by Japanese authorities and the risk of escalating geopolitical tensions continue to support the yen as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the recent decline in the U.S. dollar has helped cap gains in the USD/JPY pair.

However, any significant appreciation in the yen could be limited due to uncertainty regarding the timing of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Furthermore, expectations that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to reduce interest rates further continue to support elevated U.S. Treasury yields. This, in turn, favors dollar strength on declines, preventing the yen from gaining traction and benefiting bulls in the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has demonstrated resilience above the key 154.00 level. Positive oscillators suggest further intraday growth, favoring bullish momentum. A break above 155.00 would confirm this sentiment, paving the way toward 156.00, with minor resistance near 155.70.

On the other hand, the 153.85 level now serves as immediate support. A break below this level could push the pair toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-September decline, targeting 153.00 and further support at 152.60. A decisive break below 152.60 could open the way toward 152.00, exposing the critical 200-day SMA. At that point, the pair's bias could shift in favor of the bears.