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The test of the price level at 1.0584 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. Shortly after, a second test of 1.0584 prompted the execution of Scenario #2 for selling, as the MACD was already in the overbought zone. As a result, the pair fell by 20 pips before downward pressure on the trading instrument eased. Weak data from the U.S. housing market capped EUR/USD's downward potential in the second half of the day.
Today's market focus will be on Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Eurozone Financial Stability Report. These key reports will offer traders insights into the current state of the Eurozone economy and help formulate strategies for their investments. Analyzing this data will assist in assessing current risks and identifying opportunities for the euro's future growth. A rise in inflation and positive economic prospects for the region could provide short-term support for EUR/USD.
Additionally, the speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be closely monitored. In her speeches, she often emphasizes the importance of a balanced monetary policy aimed at price stability and supporting economic growth in the Eurozone. Recently, she discussed the effects of inflationary processes affecting Europe and the global economy, stressing the ECB's commitment to maintaining inflation around 2% using all available tools. However, her mention of a softer monetary policy path necessary for sustainable economic growth suggests further rate cuts, which is bearish for the euro since rates will continue to fall. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario #1:
Buy the euro upon reaching 1.0611 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0663. At 1.0663, I plan to exit the market and open short positions, expecting a 30-35 pip movement in the opposite direction. A rise in the euro during the first half of the day will depend on very positive data and will only occur within the framework of a corrective upward trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2:
I will also buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.0582 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Potential targets for this movement are 1.0611 and 1.0663.
Scenario #1:
I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.0582 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0540, where I will exit the market and immediately open long positions, anticipating a 20-25 pip movement in the opposite direction. Pressure on the pair may return at any moment, but selling as high as possible is better. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2:
I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of 1.0611 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. Expected targets for this movement are 1.0582 and 1.0540.
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