empty
 
 
Chystáte sa opustiť
www.instaforex.eu >
webovú stránku, ktorú prevádzkuje
INSTANT TRADING EU LTD
Otvoriť účet

28.11.202412:39 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD. November 28. Bears Need to Hold Current Levels

Tieto informácie poskytujeme retailovým a profesionálnym klientom ako súčasť marketingovej komunikácie. Neobsahujú investičné poradenstvo, investičné odporúčania, ponuku ani výzvu na vykonanie transakcie alebo použitie stratégie na finančných nástrojoch a ani by sa tak nemalo s nimi zaobchádzať. Minulá výkonnosť nie je zárukou ani predikciou budúceho výkonu. Spoločnosť Instant Trading EU Ltd. neručí a nepreberá žiadnu zodpovednosť za správnosť a úplnosť poskytovaných informácií ani za stratu, ktorá by vyplynula z akejkoľvek investície založenej na analýze, predpovedi alebo iných informáciách poskytnutých zamestnancom spoločnosti alebo iným spôsobom. Celé vylúčenie zodpovednosti nájdete tu.

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday consolidated above the 1.2611–1.2620 zone, suggesting further growth toward the 1.2709–1.2734 zone. This area is critical for the bears; losing it would signal a trend reversal, allowing the bulls to take control. A rejection from this zone would maintain the bearish trend and indicate a potential decline for the pair.

Exchange Rates 28.11.2024 analysis

The wave structure remains clear. The most recent completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the current upward wave has yet to exceed the prior peak. This confirms the continuation of the bearish trend. To indicate a reversal, the pair must return to the 1.2710 level and close above the prior resistance.

On Thursday, there were no significant threats to the U.S. dollar. However, the bulls began testing the 1.2611–1.2620 zone early in the day and managed to break through by the evening, improving their prospects. In my view, the overall market context does not favor a strong rise in the pound. The current movement appears to be a corrective wave that may conclude soon, potentially driving the pound below 1.2488. For a sustained rise in the pound and a corresponding dollar decline, fundamental shifts, such as changes in central bank policies or significant inflation reversals, would be required. Currently, no such drivers are evident, as both the U.S. and European economies remain on their current trajectories.

Exchange Rates 28.11.2024 analysis

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above 1.2620, but a bearish divergence appeared on the CCI indicator. A bearish divergence during a downtrend is a strong selling signal, suggesting that a decline toward 1.2432 could resume this week.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

Exchange Rates 28.11.2024 analysis

The latest COT report shows increased bullish sentiment among non-commercial traders. Long positions fell by 745, while short positions dropped by 11,711. Despite this, bulls maintain a strong advantage of 56,000 positions (120,000 long versus 64,000 short).

Nonetheless, the pound's downside potential remains intact, as COT data suggests strengthening bearish positions. Over the past three months, long positions increased from 102,000 to 120,000, while shorts rose from 55,000 to 64,000. I believe professional traders will continue reducing long positions or increasing shorts, as most factors favoring pound purchases have already played out. Chart analysis further supports the bearish outlook.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and U.K.

Thursday's economic calendar features no significant events. As such, the market context is unlikely to influence trader sentiment today.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

New short positions for the pair are possible if it fails to break the 1.2709–1.2734 zone, targeting 1.2611–1.2620 and below. Long positions could be considered if the pair closes above the 1.2611–1.2620 zone, with a target of 1.2709. Today, buying opportunities may arise from a rebound off the 1.2611–1.2620 zone.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.3000 to 1.3432 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299 to 1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2024

Open trading account

InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.




Teraz opúšťate stránku www.instaforex.eu, ktorá patrí spoločnosti INSTANT TRADING EU LTD
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.

Turn "Do Not Track" off