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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair attempted twice on Friday to close above the resistance zone of 1.2709 – 1.2734 but failed on both occasions. These two rejections suggest a potential reversal in favor of the US dollar, possibly resuming a decline toward the support zone of 1.2611 – 1.2620 and the retracement level of 1.2570. Consolidation above 1.2709 – 1.2734 would increase the likelihood of further growth, targeting the next resistance zone at 1.2788 – 1.2801.
The current market wave structure is clearly defined. The last completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave surpassed the prior high. This indicates a possible conclusion or pause in the bearish trend. However, as long as bears control the 1.2709 – 1.2734 zone, they maintain an edge in the market. A long-term decline in the pound remains highly probable.
Friday lacked significant news affecting the pound. Nevertheless, bullish pressure persisted, though the reasons behind it remain unclear. The new week started with a decline in the pound, but pound bears appear weaker compared to their euro counterparts. While the pound's decline remains likely, GBP/USD will closely track US economic data this week. Today's focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI, though the S&P PMI should not be overlooked. Strong US data is necessary for the pound to break decisively away from the 1.2709 – 1.2734 range. Without it, a breakout seems unlikely. Overall, the pound shows stronger upward momentum compared to the euro.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above 1.2620, but two bearish divergences appeared on the CCI indicator. The rebound from 1.2728 increases the chances of a reversal in favor of the US dollar. On the hourly chart, prices may also face rejection from this key resistance zone. The possibility of a pound decline remains.
COT Report (Commitments of Traders)
The sentiment among non-commercial traders became less bullish last week. Speculators reduced long positions by 18,279 and short positions by 2,544. Bulls still hold a strong dominance, with approximately 40,000 more long positions (102,000) than short positions (61,000).
In my view, the pound remains under pressure, as COT reports indicate growing bearish sentiment weekly. Over the past three months, long positions decreased from 102,000 to 101,000, while short positions rose from 55,000 to 62,000. Professional traders are likely to continue reducing longs or increasing shorts, as most factors supporting the pound are already priced in. Technical analysis further supports a bearish outlook.
Economic Calendar for the UK and US
Monday's economic calendar highlights the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to moderately influence market sentiment.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips
New short positions are viable if the price faces rejection from the 1.2709 – 1.2734 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2611 – 1.2620 and potentially lower. Long positions could have been considered after consolidation above the 1.2611 – 1.2620 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2709, a target that has already been met.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3000 – 1.3432 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299 – 1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.
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