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The IFO data from Germany was very disappointing, as both indicators came in below economists' forecasts. The decline in the business climate index and economic expectations led to a sharp intraday drop in the euro. The second half of the day promises to be equally interesting. Ahead are figures on the change in retail sales and industrial production in the US. A decline in these indicators will hit the US dollar hard, leading to a rise in the pair during the US session. In case of strong data, the euro will fall further, which I intend to take advantage of.
A false breakout near 1.0477, a support formed by yesterday's results, will be a suitable condition for building long positions, aiming for a return to 1.0506.A breakout and retest of this range, similar to the analysis above, will confirm the correct entry point for buying, with a target of 1.0536. The furthest target will be the maximum of 1.0567, where I will take profits. Testing this level will restore bullish market prospects for the euro.
If EUR/USD declines and there is no activity around 1.0477 in the second half of the day, pressure on the pair will only increase, leading to a larger drop. In that case, I will enter only after a false breakout near support at 1.0458. I plan to open long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0430, targeting a 30-35 point upward correction within the day.
If the euro rises on weak US retail sales data, defending resistance at 1.0506, which acted as support this morning, will be a priority for sellers. A false breakout there will restore bearish momentum and provide an entry point for short positions, targeting support at 1.0477. A break and consolidation below this range, followed by a retest from below, will offer another selling opportunity, aiming for the 1.0458 minimum, which will shift the market back in favor of the bears. The furthest target will be the level around 1.0430, where I will take profits.
If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day and there is no bearish activity near 1.0506, where the moving averages are also located (favoring sellers), I will delay selling until testing the next resistance at 1.0536. I will also sell there, but only after a failed consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0567, aiming for a 30-35 point downward correction.
The COT report for December 10 showed a rise in short positions and a reduction in long ones. However, the overall figures kept the balance of power in the market practically unchanged.
In the near future, the Fed's final meeting of the year will likely result in a decision to cut interest rates, which has recently limited the dollar's growth and supported demand for risky assets. If the Fed adopts a more cautious stance for next year, bearish pressure on EUR/USD will increase significantly.
Moving Averages:
Trading is occurring below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating the pair's continued decline.
Note: The author analyzes moving averages on the H1 hourly chart, which may differ from the classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart.
Bollinger Bands:
In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.0485 will act as support.
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