18.12.202414:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold prices fluctuate within a narrow range, hovering between modest gains and slight losses ahead of the FOMC monetary policy decision, which is set to be announced later during the North American session.

Expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve stance are boosting US Treasury yields and supporting the US dollar, thereby limiting the upward potential for the yellow metal.

However, persistent geopolitical risks – tensions in the Middle East and the protracted conflict in Ukraine, alongside fears of a trade war – continue to support safe-haven assets, curbing further declines in the price of the precious metal. Consequently, before positioning for a continuation of the recent sharp pullback from last week's monthly high, it would be prudent to wait for stronger selling pressure to materialize.

Technical Analysis

Any subsequent upward movement is likely to face resistance at the weekly high of $2666, reached on Monday, followed by the $2677 level. Sustained strength beyond this level could allow gold prices to reclaim the $2700 psychological level. Further gains might extend toward the monthly high around $2726, above which the XAU/USD pair could resume its upward trajectory.

On the other hand, the US session low near $2631 serves as immediate support ahead of the monthly low in the $2614 zone. Beyond this, the $2600 psychological level comes into focus. A decisive break below this support could act as a fresh trigger for bearish momentum.