19.12.202404:37 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for December 19, 2024

The USD/JPY pair reached the intermediate level of the upward trend at 154.72 following yesterday's strong dollar rally after the Federal Reserve meeting. However, today, the market faces the Bank of Japan's policy meeting. The consensus is that the central bank will not raise the rate yet but will deliver a strong hawkish verbal signal.

As a result, the price may return to yesterday's starting point—153.60. Consolidation below this level would open the way to 152.16, an intermediate target of 150.83. The Marlin oscillator is already signaling a downward reversal. Additionally, the upward correction since December 3 has reached precisely 76.4%.

We consider the reversal scenario the primary one, though one factor complicates it: the price has broken above the balance line (red moving average). Still, the pair could surge toward 156.79, potentially reaching 157.72, to establish a new high.

The pair's growth appears natural on the H4 chart, as the price remains above the balance line. Having crossed into positive territory, the Marlin oscillator strongly reinforces this trend. However, if the BOJ announces a firm plan (as expected), the current upward trend could quickly shift to a downward trend, as the reversal has long been overdue.