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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair experienced a sharp decline. This significant surge in the dollar was undeniably driven by one event: the FOMC meeting, which we will discuss shortly. The pair plunged to the 1.0350 level but then began to recover. The 1.0420 level might cap further euro gains, but a breakout above this level could nullify all of yesterday's efforts by the bears. A rebound from 1.0420 could signal a resumption of the downward trend toward the Fibonacci level of 423.6% – 1.0320.
The wave structure is straightforward. The last completed upward wave slightly breached the previous wave's peak, while the most recent downward wave easily broke the prior low. This confirms the completion of the "bullish" trend, which, as anticipated, was quite weak. Now, a further decline in the euro can be expected within a new bearish trend.
Wednesday's events were of immense importance. The FOMC delivered several updates that supported the bearish traders. It was revealed that only two rate cuts of 0.25% each are planned for next year, which is significantly fewer than what most traders had anticipated. GDP forecasts for next year were raised, and Jerome Powell indicated that inflation remains a concern, limiting the potential for rate cuts. Powell also highlighted the uncertainty surrounding new U.S. policies under President Donald Trump. Consequently, the Fed may pause until March to assess the extent of these new inflationary risks.
Yesterday's FOMC meeting and its outcomes can be definitively classified as "hawkish," which bolstered dollar bulls. Today, bears are counterattacking, and by the end of the day, it will likely become clear whether yesterday's decline in the pair was a one-time event. If bulls quickly recover the positions lost on Wednesday, doubts about the new bearish trend will intensify.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair executed a second rebound from the 100.0% corrective level at 1.0603 and continued to decline toward the Fibonacci level of 161.8% – 1.0225. A bearish divergence on the CCI indicator also pushed the pair lower. If the pair consolidates above 1.0436, a recovery toward 1.0603 could be expected. Currently, no new divergences are observed across indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
During the last reporting week, speculators closed 10,318 long positions and opened 7,766 short positions. The sentiment in the Non-commercial category remains bearish and is strengthening, signaling a continued decline for the pair. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 157,000, while short positions have risen to 233,000.
For 13 consecutive weeks, major players have been offloading the euro. This trend indicates a sustained bearish outlook. With the key driver for dollar depreciation—expectations of FOMC easing—already priced in, there is little reason for the market to abandon the dollar en masse. While new drivers could emerge, the U.S. dollar's appreciation remains more likely. Technical analysis also supports the onset of a long-term bearish trend, suggesting a prolonged decline for EUR/USD.
On December 19, the economic calendar features several secondary events. The impact of these on market sentiment is expected to be minimal.
The pair could have been sold after a rebound from 1.0603 on the 4-hour chart, targeting 1.0420 and 1.0320. The first target has been achieved, while the second is nearly reached. Today, selling opportunities may arise from a rebound at 1.0420 on the hourly chart. Buying opportunities will be possible if the pair closes above 1.0420 on the hourly chart, but for now, I would still advise against taking buying positions.
Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.1003–1.1214 on the hourly chart and from 1.0603–1.1214 on the 4-hour chart.
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