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As the New Year approaches, the currency market remains relatively stable, although there are signs of a potential strong dollar rally across all financial markets. One key indicator is the recent decline in the stock market; on Friday, the S&P 500 fell by 1.11%. We anticipate a significant drop in stock indices, which is likely to affect counter-dollar currencies as well.
Today, Japan's Manufacturing PMI showed an increase from 49.0 to 49.6 in December's estimate, suggesting a high likelihood that today's Chicago PMI will also reflect growth (expected 42.7 compared to November's 40.2). Given this, a rise in the euro seems unlikely.
Additionally, the EUR/USD pair is currently facing strong technical resistance at 1.0461. The Marlin oscillator has reached the zero line and is now turning downward, indicating that a break below the 1.0350 support level is expected in the early days of January.
On the H4 chart, the price has reached the MACD line and is also turning downward, signaling ongoing preparations for a downward breakout when conditions become favorable. The Marlin oscillator is consolidating just above the threshold of the downtrend territory. We do not foresee significant movement today or tomorrow.
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