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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement, which traders had not anticipated. The pair consolidated above the resistance zone of 1.0336–1.0346 and reached the resistance zone of 1.0405–1.0420. A reversal from this zone would favor the U.S. dollar and a resumption of the downtrend toward the 127.2% level at 1.0255, as the bearish trend remains intact.
The wave structure remains clear. The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the new upward wave has yet to breach the previous peak. This confirms the continuation of the bearish trend, with no signs of completion. To indicate a reversal, the euro would need a confident rise above the 1.0460 level and a close above it.
On Monday, unexpected factors supported the bulls. While final December PMI indices garnered little market attention, the German inflation report made a significant impact. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.6% in December, up from 2.2% in November and exceeding the 2.4% forecast. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) also surged to 2.9%, surpassing the 2.6% projection.
Later today, inflation reports from the Eurozone are due, and the market may anticipate higher-than-expected CPI figures, potentially above the 2.4% forecast. If inflation rises more strongly than expected, this could support the euro. A simultaneous increase in core inflation would amplify the bullish case, as it might prompt the ECB to pause its monetary easing policies in early 2025. While I am not certain that euro growth will continue today, it remains a possibility. The critical question is whether this movement will disrupt the bearish trend.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 161.8% corrective level at 1.0225 and began rising toward the 1.0436 level, aligning with the resistance zone on the hourly chart. The downward trend channel reflects the current market sentiment, and significant euro growth is unlikely without a consolidation above this channel. A return to the 1.0225 level appears more probable. The RSI indicator signals a potential bearish divergence.
During the last reporting week, speculators added 6,800 long positions and 9,412 short positions. The "Non-commercial" sentiment remains bearish, signaling further declines for the pair. The total number of long positions now stands at 159,000, compared to 228,000 short positions.
For fifteen consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing their euro holdings. This consistent trend underscores the prevailing bearish sentiment. Occasionally, bulls dominate during specific weeks, but these are exceptions rather than the rule. The anticipated easing of Federal Reserve monetary policy has already been factored into the market, leaving limited reasons to sell the dollar further. While new factors could emerge, the dollar's rise remains more likely. Long-term technical analysis also points to a continued bearish trend for EUR/USD.
Today's economic calendar includes four significant events, each with the potential to strongly influence market sentiment.
Sell opportunities arise if the pair reverses on the hourly chart from the 1.0405–1.0420 zone, targeting 1.0346–1.0336 and 1.0255. Buying was possible after a rebound from 1.0255, targeting the 1.0336–1.0346 zone. This target has been reached, along with the subsequent 1.0405–1.0420 target. For now, I do not consider new buying opportunities.
Fibonacci levels are plotted between 1.0336–1.0630 on the hourly chart and 1.0603–1.1214 on the 4-hour chart.
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