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The test of the 1.0345 price occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a proper entry point for selling the euro, which led to a decline of over 30 points toward the target level of 1.0314.
Upcoming events include the ADP employment change report and the number of initial jobless claims. Should the ADP report reveal a significant rise in employment, it would signal to traders that the US labor market continues to recover. Such data could heighten expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, strengthening the dollar. Additionally, a decrease in initial jobless claims would further confirm the economy's resilience despite current macroeconomic challenges. Markets will also closely watch wage growth, a key driver of inflationary pressure. Accelerating income growth could amplify concerns about further rate hikes, also boosting the dollar.
Later today, FOMC member Christopher Waller will deliver remarks, followed by the release of the December FOMC meeting minutes. For intraday strategies, I will focus on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches around 1.0305 (green line on the chart) with a target rise to 1.0344. At 1.0344, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry level. Euro gains today may depend on weak US labor market data.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0280 price level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth to opposite levels of 1.0305 and 1.0344 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0280 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0243, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point movement). Pressure on the pair may return after strong US statistics.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0305 price level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.0280 and 1.0243 can be expected.
Forex market beginners should exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter the market. Before the release of critical fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without applying money management.
Lastly, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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