14.01.202514:02 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/JPY pair is showing signs of recovery following a night-time rebound from the psychological level of 160.00, marking the monthly low.

Uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike continues to weaken the yen, creating favorable conditions for EUR/JPY's upward movement. Additionally, a modest decline in the US dollar is supporting the euro, contributing to the pair's intraday recovery. However, the dovish stance of the European Central Bank may limit the euro's upward potential, which could also cap gains in the EUR/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, strength beyond the 50-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) supports a bullish outlook. Furthermore, positive oscillators on the 1-hour chart align with the prospects for additional intraday gains. Therefore, a move beyond the psychological level of 162.00 toward testing the 100-hour SMA appears to be a plausible scenario.

On the other hand, weakness below the 50-hour SMA could present a buying opportunity, likely limited to the psychological level of 161.00. A decisive break below this level would make the EUR/JPY pair vulnerable to an accelerated decline toward the psychological level of 160.00, with some intermediate support near the 160.60–160.55 zone.

Outlook

• Upside Targets: Sustained movement beyond 162.00 could lead to a test of the 100-hour SMA and potentially higher levels.
• Downside Risks: A break below 161.00 increases the likelihood of a retest of the 160.00 level