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No tests of the specified levels occurred during the first half of the day, so I stayed out of trades. The euro traded without any volatility and at low volume. It seems that market participants are waiting for more data to make better-informed decisions following yesterday's inflation statistics.
The jobless claims data expected in the second half of the day may significantly impact the US labor market. An increase in claims typically signals growing instability and could lead to volatility in equity markets. Conversely, a decline in claims would be seen as a sign of a strengthening economy, potentially boosting investor optimism.
The retail sales data will also be a critical indicator for assessing consumer demand. Retail sales are a significant driver of economic growth, and any deviation from expected figures could prompt reactions in currency and commodity markets.
Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will offer valuable insights into the state of the industrial sector in the region, helping to understand broader trends in manufacturing. Lastly, John Williams' speech promises to add further market-moving potential, as his comments may shed light on the future of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Traders will closely scrutinize his statements for hints about potential changes to interest rates.
For the second half of the day, I'll focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: Today, consider buying the euro at around 1.0302 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0340. At 1.0340, I plan to exit the market and open sell positions, expecting a pullback of 30–35 points from the entry point. Anticipate euro growth today if US retail sales decline.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0282 level, with the MACD indicator in oversold territory. This scenario would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal. Targets include the opposite levels of 1.0302 and 1.0340.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.0282 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0245, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open buy positions, expecting a pullback of 20–25 points from this level. Downward pressure on the pair may return if US data is strong.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0302 level, with the MACD indicator in overbought territory. This scenario would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. Targets include 1.0282 and 1.0245.
For beginner traders on the Forex market, it's crucial to make decisions cautiously. Before major fundamental reports are released, it's often best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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