13.03.202519:11 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CAD: Analysis and Forecast

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Today, USD/CAD is attempting a recovery following its recent decline, attracting buyers around 1.4350. Spot prices have climbed toward the 1.4400 round level, allowing the pair to recoup some of the previous day's losses. However, several factors could limit any significant upside for the pair.

The Canadian dollar remains under pressure due to the Bank of Canada's seventh consecutive rate cut and the escalation of the U.S.-Canada trade war. This creates a negative backdrop, especially as there have been no follow-up crude oil purchases after yesterday's rally, which typically influences CAD. At the same time, bearish sentiment toward the U.S. dollar, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, also caps USD/CAD's gains.

Technical Outlook

The pair struggles to break above the 1.4400 round level. However, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, and the nearest support lies at the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) near 1.4353. A sustained break below this level could trigger aggressive selling, paving the way for deeper losses. The next target would be 1.4300, followed by 1.4215 (where the 100-day SMA is located) and 1.4200.

On the other hand, a decisive breakout above 1.4400 and sustained momentum beyond this level would reopen the path toward the psychological level of 1.4500, with resistance at 1.4450. This would allow USD/CAD to test its monthly high at 1.4520. Further buying interest could lift the price toward the 1.4600 round level and beyond.

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